Covid 19 worries !
- Thread starter #lazy
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There is always a need to be cautious with statistics. Nobody has any idea how many people are infected with flu or covid19. They only know how many are tested as positive and how many die. They also do not differentiate in the top level figures how many of those who die already suffer a chronic condition which leaves them pray to any respiratory infection.
Eddy Current
E*POWAH Master
Tomorrow about 3000 people from Madrid arrives to the UK (Liverpool) like that, happily, no controls, nothing ... beware of this Covid Armada mates, and ask your governors wtf are they doing!!!
miPbiP
E*POWAH Master
I think the UK govt has accepted there will be an epidemic and significant death toll, they're hoping to mange the peak so the process is longer rather than shorter with a higher peak - this reduces peak strain on health services by spreading it out.
I expect to go into lockdown during the April school holidays. They can't enforce compliance for a long period in the same way as has been done in China so they're choosing the timing carefully.
We've no immunity, no vaccine, and it's impossible to track every spreader. What else can happen?
China could well still be hit by a second wave. They've not killed it.
Possible that F1 opener could get cancelled still:
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/11/australian-grand-prix-three-f1-team-members-placed-in-isolation-over-coronavirus-fears
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/11/australian-grand-prix-three-f1-team-members-placed-in-isolation-over-coronavirus-fears
billwarwick
E*POWAH Elite
Why?
Liverpool play Madrid (it's a football thing)
miPbiP
E*POWAH Master
Angela Merkel (let's assume she's no panic spreader and is well advised) is suggesting infection rate of 60-70% in Germany.
My other half works in health care, I asked what vaccination rate is usually required for a transmittable disease to be rooted out of a population and she says about 70%.
So it matches, if immunity via infection is a rough proxy for vaccination. 70% in these terms means "everyone".
Buckle up folks.
I might have missed the window to have my knee fixed!
My other half works in health care, I asked what vaccination rate is usually required for a transmittable disease to be rooted out of a population and she says about 70%.
So it matches, if immunity via infection is a rough proxy for vaccination. 70% in these terms means "everyone".
Buckle up folks.
I might have missed the window to have my knee fixed!
billwarwick
E*POWAH Elite
That's mad. 3000 into a full house at Anfield.
I have a trip to Madrid booked for my birthday on Easter weekend so looks that will have to be cancelled
I have a trip to Madrid booked for my birthday on Easter weekend so looks that will have to be cancelled
Got a ferry booked for beginning of May and unless they cancel the crossing I will definitely be on it, 2 riding holidays booked and don't think there will be any greater risk of catching anything in Spain as in the UKThat's mad. 3000 into a full house at Anfield.
I have a trip to Madrid booked for my birthday on Easter weekend so looks that will have to be cancelled
miPbiP
E*POWAH Master
and if you have it unawares and pass it on, that's just tough **** yeah?
GrahamPaul
E*POWAH Elite World Champion
Madrid suma 10 muertes con coronavirus en un día: llega a los 31 fallecidos y supera ya los mil contagiados
Because Madrid is a hotspot for coronavirus. All football matches have been cancelled. Appeals by the mayor not attend popular events.
(Should add that it's mostly been affecting the elderly particularly - but given the demographic of EMTB riders, that's probably a salient point
)Unless none of us leave the house for the next 6 months then it's going to happen, is that what you are suggesting we do ?
miPbiP
E*POWAH Master
I don't know what's going to happen, decisions will be made late and when we have data.
I think we need to be realistic here, and the containment of the virus and resulting spread seems to be very much influenced by cultural tendencies across the world.
I have friends in Taiwan, and the effectively put the country on lockdown straight away, banned panic buying by restricting purchasing in bulk of certain items, and introduced heavy fines for anyone not complying - because the population did as they where told, they have been very effective at limiting the spread of the Virus.
If you look at Europe, no one is taking it that seriously, we have a tendency to ignore government advice, and as a result the virus is spreading fast - again I have a friend in Italy in the effective areas, and he reckons the spread their has been so bad because people haven't stuck to doing what they have been advised, and a lot of people have also moved around to get out of the areas, thus making the problem worse.
I have 3 clients who all went skiing in Northern Italy at half term, all 3 have been advised to self isolate, have been tested negative, after 2 weeks isolation, but advised to spend another week isolated.
Only one of them has followed the advise, the other two are trying to organise meetings etc and we are having to tell them no chance.
Really IMO the government should "go nuclear" right now and try and nip it in the bud, the fact that football matches and big public events are still going ahead seems crazy, the longer we wait the worse the impact will be on us all in terms of economic and day to day life, irrespective of its you have the Virus or not.
I have friends in Taiwan, and the effectively put the country on lockdown straight away, banned panic buying by restricting purchasing in bulk of certain items, and introduced heavy fines for anyone not complying - because the population did as they where told, they have been very effective at limiting the spread of the Virus.
If you look at Europe, no one is taking it that seriously, we have a tendency to ignore government advice, and as a result the virus is spreading fast - again I have a friend in Italy in the effective areas, and he reckons the spread their has been so bad because people haven't stuck to doing what they have been advised, and a lot of people have also moved around to get out of the areas, thus making the problem worse.
I have 3 clients who all went skiing in Northern Italy at half term, all 3 have been advised to self isolate, have been tested negative, after 2 weeks isolation, but advised to spend another week isolated.
Only one of them has followed the advise, the other two are trying to organise meetings etc and we are having to tell them no chance.
Really IMO the government should "go nuclear" right now and try and nip it in the bud, the fact that football matches and big public events are still going ahead seems crazy, the longer we wait the worse the impact will be on us all in terms of economic and day to day life, irrespective of its you have the Virus or not.
Mcharza
E*POWAH BOSS
Just heard that all guided trips in Finale are canceled until April, let's hope it's enough
miPbiP
E*POWAH Master
I think they will but they're choosing the moment as non-compliant behaviour, as you describe, means they only get one shot. Timing matters.
I suspect that they are waiting till the schools break up in a couple of weeks.
I work in high end private residential construction (i.e build houses for very very rich people) and we are already seeing a lot of supply chain problems, and given that most of the contractors on these jobs are self employed and in effect only get paid in arrears once set stages of works are completed/valued, there are a lot of very nervous people on sites at the moment.
Add in that at this level of work the design teams and clients tend to be based all over the world, we are also seeing real disruption to the flow of information.
Lot of construction lawyers looking very closely at the Force Majeure clauses in various contracts right now.
On one site we have nearly 500k worth of stone stuck in Italy holding up the job, the prelims on the job (costs of keeping the site running and operational) are circa 8k a week that the builder is having to fork out for, and the lawyers and quantity surveyors are trying to figure out how to cover that without winding down the site/job which would cost more money, or do you shut down for 6 months and pause the whole job? Financially the builder has paid for the stone, but contractually the client doesn't pay for it until its installed.
Obviously my clients are not the kind of people who get much sympathy from the general public, but each of our jobs could have up to 300 people involved in one way or anther, and if things grind to a halt they are all out of work.
Clusterfuck!
I work in high end private residential construction (i.e build houses for very very rich people) and we are already seeing a lot of supply chain problems, and given that most of the contractors on these jobs are self employed and in effect only get paid in arrears once set stages of works are completed/valued, there are a lot of very nervous people on sites at the moment.
Add in that at this level of work the design teams and clients tend to be based all over the world, we are also seeing real disruption to the flow of information.
Lot of construction lawyers looking very closely at the Force Majeure clauses in various contracts right now.
On one site we have nearly 500k worth of stone stuck in Italy holding up the job, the prelims on the job (costs of keeping the site running and operational) are circa 8k a week that the builder is having to fork out for, and the lawyers and quantity surveyors are trying to figure out how to cover that without winding down the site/job which would cost more money, or do you shut down for 6 months and pause the whole job? Financially the builder has paid for the stone, but contractually the client doesn't pay for it until its installed.
Obviously my clients are not the kind of people who get much sympathy from the general public, but each of our jobs could have up to 300 people involved in one way or anther, and if things grind to a halt they are all out of work.
Clusterfuck!
miPbiP
E*POWAH Master
Understood. It's not just the rich by any means. Everyone is linked. Very scary time for the many people living a pay packet away from not covering basic costs.
Yeah school hols might make sense, I've also seen suggestion from a journo of Sunday coming and a statement this evening. (Take it as you will - it's hearsay at this stage).
Yeah school hols might make sense, I've also seen suggestion from a journo of Sunday coming and a statement this evening. (Take it as you will - it's hearsay at this stage).
Yup, one of the interesting things about my side of the industry, is that a lot of specialist trades the involve years of training to perfect, would be in danger of dying out if there weren't people around with the money to spend on them, the irony being that a lot of these things where nothing special a century ago, but modern manufacturing techniques and processes have made the labour that goes into them not cost effective for the mass market anymore.
A good example might be specialist pointers, who are trained in all the different types of pointing, many of which just are not used anymore due to time budget/constraints, not many guys left who are true masters at this and as a result they are not cheap simply because of the time it takes to do the work, but would be a real shame if the skills died out.
A good example might be specialist pointers, who are trained in all the different types of pointing, many of which just are not used anymore due to time budget/constraints, not many guys left who are true masters at this and as a result they are not cheap simply because of the time it takes to do the work, but would be a real shame if the skills died out.
Bugger. We're booked to go in May for the LHG's 50th.
Yes the success of the human race its also its biggest downfall - from memory it took bubonic plague a couple of decades to get from the Far East to Northern Europe in the Middle Ages, would take just one flight now.
I dont think its got anything to do with open borders or permitted movement of people though, its pretty simple in that we are one planet, one people, and all need to be following the same advice and have a coordinated response - the different reactions from different governments many of which are more politically motivated that looking after the populace is a real worry.
I dont think its got anything to do with open borders or permitted movement of people though, its pretty simple in that we are one planet, one people, and all need to be following the same advice and have a coordinated response - the different reactions from different governments many of which are more politically motivated that looking after the populace is a real worry.
World population was around 1.6 billion in 1918 too (with half in China. Now it’s 7.8 billion worldwide). This also has some bearing.
It’s not hyperbolic to suggest we really are in uncharted territory with this pandemic though now.
It’s not hyperbolic to suggest we really are in uncharted territory with this pandemic though now.
why so? A pandemic is by definition geographically widespread and those populations are naïve ( ie have no natural antibodies to fight off the infection). I was wrong a bout Spanish Flu in 1918...20m was the death rate in Europe, worldwide it was 100m. 1957 Asian Flue claimed 2m victims, 1968 Hong Kong Flu claimed 1m, 2009 Asian Flue claimed 203k...….and those examples exclude things like HIV which has claimed 20m. All barring the first occurred during my lifetime but I remember no hysteria, and I am not aware of any friends relatives or acquaintances that fell victim to any of them. So we are not in unchartered water. We are the best prepared and advised we have ever been.
The scientific evidence suggests this is much more serious than any of those outbreaks. We also don’t know how it is carried and expressed in a wide population making control much more difficult. The world is also not in all that great a place for world wide or even European coordination.
However, I agree though that we are better prepared than for SARS etc but not by a great deal.
Note, I’m not trying to convey a sense of hysteria about this as there are measures we can take.
However, I agree though that we are better prepared than for SARS etc but not by a great deal.
Note, I’m not trying to convey a sense of hysteria about this as there are measures we can take.
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