Covid 19 worries !

[GrahamPaul]

Thought it worth posting back with a graph of daily new cases (not cumulative) so you can see the countries that have turned this around.

View attachment 27755

That is the plot of daily cases per million population by days since the country recorded more than 1 case per million. Only South Korea and China have turned it around. Singapore's initialliy successful containment was "delay" only. Everybody else is heading upwards of 100 daily cases per million and who knows if we will see turnaround before 1000 daily cases per million - e.g. 0.1% chance that you will get it on any single day.

Italy is the curve to watch. Switzerland might be skewed because of small population and Swiss efficiency in detecting cases.

Interactive version on this link: clicky

Nothing there I disagree with at all. Good to see someone else not trusting our journalists and political masters to dish up the unvarnished truth.

One question, though: why the polynomial curve fit? You'd do just as well with straight lines (maybe two or three per curve where there are significant changes in slope), which is usually the point of plotting to a log scale. It would show the trends much more clearly.

 

[Mcharza]

Here's a good statistic Coronavirus Update (Live): 368,752 Cases and 16,118 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

 

[Mikerb]

Not sure many people believe the reports from China.
Given the majority of fatalities are among the elderly and those with existing health conditions other hidden aspects of the statistics are the demographics and the general health of populations in different countries. Italy for example has a large aged population. Maybe Germanys apparent low fatality rate is a reflection of a healthier aged population? As with most statistics the trend is a more valid parameter than absolute numbers assuming the main factors that impact the stats remain constant.

 

[stiv674]

Well that wasn't unexpected...

At least we're allowed to get some exercise at the moment.

 

[Fivetones]

Lost Sense of Smell May Be Peculiar Clue to Coronavirus Infection

 

[Zimmerframe]

Well that wasn't unexpected...

At least we're allowed to get some exercise at the moment.

You're ok .. it's not a "LOCKDOWN" .. it's as close as you can get to it, but without it being a lockdown .. so a "lockdownish" ... or a "not lockdown" ..

Quite nice they've said you can still go out on your bikes though.

Hopefully, this will start to round the curve off in three of four weeks.

 

[stiv674]

You're ok .. it's not a "LOCKDOWN" .. it's as close as you can get to it, but without it being a lockdown .. so a "lockdownish" ... or a "not lockdown" ..

Quite nice they've said you can still go out on your bikes though.

Hopefully, this will start to round the curve off in three of four weeks.

Yeah it's not too bad at the moment, just hoping the dickheads at the weekend have got the message now!

 

[Nicho]

Here is an interesting statistic:

The posts on this thread are increasing each day at the same rate as the virus in Italy!

 

[Mikerb]

for people with a more active social life I can see the "near" lockdown being quite hard. TBH for me it is not really much of a change except for windsurfing.....I am not sure a bout that one. don't need to come into close contact with anyone when I windsurf but if there are more than a couple of us out in the area of water I guess that could be beyond the rules.
I don't eat out, go to the pub and don't like organised events etc. My pleasure comes from natural landscapes and the great outdoors, alone or with a mate, so riding the bike or walking the dog or windsurfing. I am pleased that the likely invasion of my local area with tourists looks to have been stopped or at least radically reduced.

 

[Mikerb]

Yes, Singapore is a test case for less draconian containment practices.

Some of the Scandinavian countries as well.

 

[Mcharza]

Here's a good statistic Coronavirus Update (Live): 368,752 Cases and 16,118 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Or this with graphics Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

 

[slippery pete]

One question, though: why the polynomial curve fit?

Not polynomial. Moving average with a quite large window. If you linear trend, the earliest records have as much influence on the slope as the later records. With evolving measures and shifting bases in information capture ( test regimes) I wanted to see whether measures were taking effect. In this situation we are looking for a change as measures are brought to bear.

 

[Zimmerframe]

Whilst it's only a tiny drop in the ocean of all this, I wish governments would start being a bit clearer and more balanced with some of their rules - and even explaining it to their own people ..

For instance .. Here (France), you can only go out for essential shopping.

But, on the list of businesses allowed to stay open, they've kept open the MOT stations.

However, the MOT stations have all closed themselves, because it's not worth the risk. One person climbing in and out of hundreds of other peoples vehicles either getting or transmitting the virus isn't worth the risk.

So now, you're expected to goto an MOT station, as they'll fine you if you drive without one. But you're not allowed to drive to an MOT station as that's not classed as essential for life, so they'll fine you if you're driving to one. But they're closed anyway...... So you'll get fined for driving to the shops without one.

I think the Italians and Spanish put 40 day delays on MOT's at the start of their lockdowns, so quite sensible.

Likewise, you're allowed to leave your home to cater to your animals which may not be on site to give them their essentials.

Yesterday, a young lady managed to balance 2*25 litre containers with water, on her scooter, to go the 500 meters to her horses. The police stopped her, fined her and sent her back as they said water for horses was not essential to human life. ... Madness.

 

[mike425]

Whilst it's only a tiny drop in the ocean of all this, I wish governments would start being a bit clearer and more balanced with some of their rules - and even explaining it to their own people ..

For instance .. Here (France), you can only go out for essential shopping.

But, on the list of businesses allowed to stay open, they've kept open the MOT stations.

However, the MOT stations have all closed themselves, because it's not worth the risk. One person climbing in and out of hundreds of other peoples vehicles either getting or transmitting the virus isn't worth the risk.

So now, you're expected to goto an MOT station, as they'll fine you if you drive without one. But you're not allowed to drive to an MOT station as that's not classed as essential for life, so they'll fine you if you're driving to one. But they're closed anyway...... So you'll get fined for driving to the shops without one.

I think the Italians and Spanish put 40 day delays on MOT's at the start of their lockdowns, so quite sensible.

Likewise, you're allowed to leave your home to cater to your animals which may not be on site to give them their essentials.

Yesterday, a young lady managed to balance 2*25 litre containers with water, on her scooter, to go the 500 meters to her horses. The police stopped her, fined her and sent her back as they said water for horses was not essential to human life. ... Madness.

I think it is a tricky situation all round, to one person the horses are not important but to others its everything. I was speaking with someone yesterday who was saying that they were worried how their dog would cope with not having 4 walks a day, I wanted to say they will have to deal with it as I wouldn't personally class that as important.

The garage thing seems daft to me, I have had numerous emails from car dealers now offering collect and drop of services to keep going, surely that defeats the object of us staying at home as much as possible? Is getting your car serviced "essential" at this point?

 

[R120]

I have this problem, lease runs out on my car this month, but garage is closed so I cant take it back, no one know what to do

 

[GrahamPaul]

Not polynomial. Moving average with a quite large window. If you linear trend, the earliest records have as much influence on the slope as the later records. With evolving measures and shifting bases in information capture ( test regimes) I wanted to see whether measures were taking effect. In this situation we are looking for a change as measures are brought to bear.

Then I think we may be on the same page. Moving average works best with a near linear data set.

It's a very long time (about half a century) since I did my statistics courses, but I seem to remember that, with epidemiology statistics, it is necessary to weight the moving average to prevent bias from earlier results. Also, the window width is important because you are always one radius back from the present. That's a rabbit hole which really beckons on a lock down!

 

[steveo]

Personally i think we will be on full on lockdown sooner rather than later and not just this kid on version. From what i have seen so far today the moron's are ignoring last nights statement and still carrying on as normal. I stay on a busy main road its still busy,there are work units round the back of my house that are not deemed important work there all still open and working away as normal,my neighbor has been in and out all morning in his motor.

 

[mike425]

Personally i think we will be on full on lockdown sooner rather than later and not just this kid on version. From what i have seen so far today the moron's are ignoring last nights statement and still carrying on as normal. I stay on a busy main road its still busy,there are work units round the back of my house that are not deemed important work there all still open and working away as normal,my neighbor has been in and out all morning in his motor.

Agreed, I am sat here from my home office watching a van of 4 builders sat in the cab sharing a flask of tea ffs. The best bit is, when they get out of the cab they are washing their hands with antibacterial wipes!

 

[Zimmerframe]

I seem to remember that, with epidemiology statistics, it is necessary to weight the moving average to prevent bias from earlier results. Also, the window width is important because you are always one radius back from the present. That's a rabbit hole which really beckons on a lock down!

Gentlemen .. understand your audience ... can't we just have a pie chart ! That's far easier for us to consume !

One week Ago ...

And today .. Roughly speaking : cases, more than doubled. two and half times as many dead. 25% more recoveries ...

 

[GrahamPaul]

Gentlemen .. understand your audience ... can't we just have a pie chart ! That's far easier for us to consume !

That's the problem with lockdowns: too much pie! We'll be too fat to get out the doors by the end of this!

(Oh, and pie charts can't properly handle exponential growth. Just like the belt in my trousers cant handle the current exponential pie intake...)

 

[Zimmerframe]

That's the problem with lockdowns: too much pie! We'll be too fat to get out the doors by the end of this!

(Oh, and pie charts can't properly handle exponential growth. Just like the belt in my trousers cant handle the current exponential pie intake...)

There's your challenges.. stylish lycra trousers and a tiny pie chart next to a giant pie chart..?

 

[miPbiP]

the UK 'lockdown' is not a lockdown, it's just being asked to play nicely.

look at the pictures from Wuhan - empty motorways. now that is a lockdown.

 

[GrahamPaul]

the UK 'lockdown' is not a lockdown, it's just being asked to play nicely.

look at the pictures from Wuhan - empty motorways. now that is a lockdown.

I was amused this morning when Gove threatened fines of 30 quid. That's a round of drinks in the pub!

The fines here start at 1500€ for errant cyclists (although I think that walkers get away with a fine of 300€) and go up to 60,000€. That's the way to empty the streets!

 

[GrahamPaul]

There's your challenges.. stylish lycra trousers and a tiny pie chart next to a giant pie chart..?

There's your challenges.. stylish lycra trousers and a tiny pie chart next to a giant pie chart..

There! FTFY!

 

[MattyB]

You're ok .. it's not a "LOCKDOWN" .. it's as close as you can get to it, but without it being a lockdown .. so a "lockdownish" ... or a "not lockdown" ...

As my best mate who now lives in Paris told me last night, "You guys have got it easy with your 'day release' lockdown"!

 

[Mikerb]

I was amused this morning when Gove threatened fines of 30 quid. That's a round of drinks in the pub!

The fines here start at 1500€ for errant cyclists (although I think that walkers get away with a fine of 300€) and go up to 60,000€. That's the way to empty the streets!

Forward planning for when the Euro is worth diddly squat ???!!

 

[Mikerb]

Well its very quiet around here...just walked the dogs...my legal single non domicile exercise per day....the only signs of life were the birds in the hedgerows...oh and a tractor. Lovely!

 

[Sophie777]

I was amused this morning when Gove threatened fines of 30 quid. That's a round of drinks in the pub!

The fines here start at 1500€ for errant cyclists (although I think that walkers get away with a fine of 300€) and go up to 60,000€. That's the way to empty the streets!

I am understanding correctly - cycling is banned in Spain?

 

[GrahamPaul]

I am understanding correctly - cycling is banned in Spain?

I think it's possible to cycle to the shops for essential shopping. Probably for travel to work if that's your only transport. Otherwise, yes. In fact, even leaving your house/apartment is banned.

I can see a park where dog owners empty their dogs and the Guardia are questioning the owners to make sure that they live within a couple of hundred metres.

The rules are enforced. The fines are huge.

 

[GrahamPaul]

Forward planning for when the Euro is worth diddly squat ???!!

I wish I could laugh at that. But my pensions are paid in Sterling. It just ain't funny.