Covid 19 worries !
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Is it National Trust or Forestry Commision land? National Trust have closed all of their parks and gardens
Yes it is an effective way to compare cumulative cases although doesn't factor total population or number of tests performed. Here is an updated graph & link to daily updates.
Total confirmed cases of COVID-19
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Its owned or run by the crown estate and think someone needed an ambulance there yesterday , so have decided to close to bike on trails and fire roads !
Looks like everyone's taking the social distancing and maybe staying at home pretty seriously ..
www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-51994504
I really hope someone's majorly ramping up respirator production in the UK or there's going to be a lot of unnecessary departures starting late next week.
Statistically speaking (which in no way really represents the actual situation, because the UK cases haven't had enough time for people to actually recover). BUT... you really really don't want to get C-19 if you're in the UK at the moment if numbers drive you !! Look out world .. at the moment, you're 2.5 times more likely to die than recover !! Hoping for some big increases in recoveries soon !!!!
www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-51994504
I really hope someone's majorly ramping up respirator production in the UK or there's going to be a lot of unnecessary departures starting late next week.
Statistically speaking (which in no way really represents the actual situation, because the UK cases haven't had enough time for people to actually recover). BUT... you really really don't want to get C-19 if you're in the UK at the moment if numbers drive you !! Look out world .. at the moment, you're 2.5 times more likely to die than recover !! Hoping for some big increases in recoveries soon !!!!
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And on top of that....
Earthquake rocks Croatia's capital
Earthquake rocks Croatia's capital
Yep I am close to popular tourist spots and am concerned that now the schools are closed we will get swamped with grockles. We only have 7 cases county wide here so low compared to London and Home Counties but that could so easilly change with an influx of visitors.
steve_sordy
Wedding Crasher
The other factor of course is that reporting deaths due to Corona virus is overstating the case. Because of the Corona virus's more severe impact upon older people, many of those deaths will have been from people who would have died this year anyway of other things. The virus just made it happen a bit sooner. A tragedy for those involved, but none the less they would still have died of something, seeing as they had underlying health conditions that made them vulnerable to a pulmonary illness.
For example, the Department of Health and Social Care says that deaths due to flu and its complications averages 17,000/year. It varies enormously, from less than 1700 in 18/19 to over 28,000 in 2014/15. But in 17/18 the number was above 50,000 deaths (largely unnoticed by the Press, but I was nearly one of them!). Did you see what I did there? 1700 deaths in 18/19, but an enormous 50,000 the year before. Those that were taken in that cull were not around to die the year after. If the Corona virus had been around in 17/18, how many of those 50,000 deaths would have been attributed to the virus? What is the betting that the number of flu-related deaths this coming winter will be low, because those that were susceptible have been finished off early by the Corona virus?
What has the Corona virus done to us? Here we are discussing mortality rates and early deaths in a dispassionate and seemingly uncaring manner. It shows what an impact it has had on the nations thoughts (some of us at least).
I'm almost 69 and with a history of a susceptibility to lung problems, so I have a keen interest in this whole topic!
Keep your distance, you know it makes sense!
Note: Thanks to Peter Hitchens of the MoS for obtaining the numbers from the Department of Health and Social Care.
For example, the Department of Health and Social Care says that deaths due to flu and its complications averages 17,000/year. It varies enormously, from less than 1700 in 18/19 to over 28,000 in 2014/15. But in 17/18 the number was above 50,000 deaths (largely unnoticed by the Press, but I was nearly one of them!). Did you see what I did there? 1700 deaths in 18/19, but an enormous 50,000 the year before. Those that were taken in that cull were not around to die the year after. If the Corona virus had been around in 17/18, how many of those 50,000 deaths would have been attributed to the virus? What is the betting that the number of flu-related deaths this coming winter will be low, because those that were susceptible have been finished off early by the Corona virus?
What has the Corona virus done to us? Here we are discussing mortality rates and early deaths in a dispassionate and seemingly uncaring manner. It shows what an impact it has had on the nations thoughts (some of us at least).
I'm almost 69 and with a history of a susceptibility to lung problems, so I have a keen interest in this whole topic!
Keep your distance, you know it makes sense!
Note: Thanks to Peter Hitchens of the MoS for obtaining the numbers from the Department of Health and Social Care.
I am 69 and have no health problems but I am self isolating anyway as far as it is practical to do. You are right that you need to be a little careful with the stats if you want an accurate view of what is happening. In the UK the limited amount of testing means most of the reported cases are hospitalised. There will be many more than that infected who may be assymptomatic or only mildly affected. They are the walking timebombs. Plus there are all those still in the incubation stage. Put together it does mean the death rate is much lower as apercentage of the numer infected, but that number infected is greater than the stats show.
GrahamPaul
E*POWAH Elite World Champion
Oddly enough that had been bothering me as well, so I went to source data and did my own graphs, dividing the infection and death rates by population size. I found taking a start point of 0.2 cases per million of population and 0.2 deaths per 100,000 of population gave some startling visual evidence - again using log plots.
Choosing the origin point is a bit arbirtrary and I think has distorted the USA figures because the country is so vast with uneven spread.
The slope of the curves are all pretty similar, which means that here in Spain we are about a week behind Italy.
The curve for the UK is worth comment.
You can really see why I need to get out on my bike more!
[Edit: Note that the vertical scale is to 3 decimal places. It starts at 0.1 and goes up to 1000. Just in case anyone else in here is used to using the point as a thousands marker]
[Edit 23/3: I slept on this and realised the following, which I've added just in case anyone else there is interested in the mathematics of the curves being produced in the Press:
log(Deaths/Population) = log(Deaths) - log(Population)
So, basically, no matter how the normalisation is done, the slope stays the same and log(Population) defines the intersection point on the axes.
Therefore, the sensible way to normalise would be to select the initial point with (initial deaths) and subtract the log(initial deaths) from each plotted value. That way all curves are normalised to the same start position]
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steve_sordy
Wedding Crasher
I'm surprised that the BBC has not produced a report showing all the graphs and charts that we have seen, but more up to date. But maybe they have been told not to do so in case it frightens the general population.
But if it was on BBC2, and called something nerdy like" Mathematics of Covid-19 + Lots of Talking Heads" it would not be watched by those likely to be unduly alarmed by the facts of the situation.
But if it was on BBC2, and called something nerdy like" Mathematics of Covid-19 + Lots of Talking Heads" it would not be watched by those likely to be unduly alarmed by the facts of the situation.
GrahamPaul
E*POWAH Elite World Champion
I think the Beeb's problem is their culture of "balance". They'd have to devote equal time to someone telling us that it's just a mild cold, so wrap up warm and carry on...
BBC bizarrely chooses to interview Nigel Farage about coronavirus on Newsnight
(I find it utterly heartbreaking that "balance" means that equal weight must be given to "opinions" as is given to provable facts
)Everything is a fact until it is proven wrong!I think the Beeb's problem is their culture of "balance". They'd have to devote equal time to someone telling us that it's just a mild cold, so wrap up warm and carry on...
BBC bizarrely chooses to interview Nigel Farage about coronavirus on Newsnight
(I find it utterly heartbreaking that "balance" means that equal weight must be given to "opinions" as is given to provable facts
It still astounds me how selfish some poeple are being. I live in a building of 4 flats, one of the residents is in the 1.5million at risk category so is not allowed anywhere for 12 weeks.
The flat next door to him has sold recently and today 5 builders turned up to start doing work on it. They are carrying on as if nothing has changed in the world, basically an additional 5 people coming in and out of a small building that they dont need to be in, not applying any form of safety advice whilst doing it.
I asked the owner of the property if they thought it was appropriate to be doing the work at this point when we know someone in the building is potentially going to die from it if they contract the virus. Their response was "I have spent a lot on this property and I need it to be rented out ASAP".
I don't even know how you begin to have a sensible discussion with someone like that.
The flat next door to him has sold recently and today 5 builders turned up to start doing work on it. They are carrying on as if nothing has changed in the world, basically an additional 5 people coming in and out of a small building that they dont need to be in, not applying any form of safety advice whilst doing it.
I asked the owner of the property if they thought it was appropriate to be doing the work at this point when we know someone in the building is potentially going to die from it if they contract the virus. Their response was "I have spent a lot on this property and I need it to be rented out ASAP".
I don't even know how you begin to have a sensible discussion with someone like that.
Firstly get in touch with the managing agent or freeholders association if you have one, and ask if they are aware of the works, and what paperwork should been in place for any building work - many Freeholders have put a halt on anyone works starting in block right now that are not essential maintenance.Let the Freeholder/Managing agent deal with it if they think things are not in order.
Then ask the owner the following:
- Have they got the permission of the freeholder to undertake any work - usually would require a License to Alter in a block of flats. This would usually over works that our allowed, security deposits, requirement for party wall awards, insurance etc
- Have they served building control Notice
- Have they served an F10 and completed the relevant CDM paperwork to start on site
Without a building control notice in place they shouldn't have started work.
CDM is Construction Design and management regulations - this is a process under witch site risk in terms of working conditions, and effects of the works in regards to HS, and mitigating them on site and to other people/the general public are identified by the contractor, and submitted to HSE - with the current situation mitigating risk of spread of Covid-19 would have to be identified and a strategy for mitigating and exposure or spread in place. Given there is a sever shortage of PPE in the construction industry right now it is almost impossible to comply with HSE regs.
Hope this helps
GrahamPaul
E*POWAH Elite World Champion
An opinion is not necessarily fact. Therefore not everything is fact. Ergo your statement is demonstrably wrong and I claim my £5
slippery pete
Well-known member
Thought it worth posting back with a graph of daily new cases (not cumulative) so you can see the countries that have turned this around.
That is the plot of daily cases per million population by days since the country recorded more than 1 case per million. Only South Korea and China have turned it around. Singapore's initialliy successful containment was "delay" only. Everybody else is heading upwards of 100 daily cases per million and who knows if we will see turnaround before 1000 daily cases per million - e.g. 0.1% chance that you will get it on any single day.
Italy is the curve to watch. Switzerland might be skewed because of small population and Swiss efficiency in detecting cases.
Interactive version on this link: clicky
That is the plot of daily cases per million population by days since the country recorded more than 1 case per million. Only South Korea and China have turned it around. Singapore's initialliy successful containment was "delay" only. Everybody else is heading upwards of 100 daily cases per million and who knows if we will see turnaround before 1000 daily cases per million - e.g. 0.1% chance that you will get it on any single day.
Italy is the curve to watch. Switzerland might be skewed because of small population and Swiss efficiency in detecting cases.
Interactive version on this link: clicky
I do believe that a lot of all the published statistics do not provide a clear picture of what is going on right now. Even WHO are shouting "test test test and more tests", most infected countries are following very different test strategies. That in the end makes it impossible to do a direct comparison based on the above mentioned statistic numbers.
Denmark for example do not follow the recommendation from WHO and therefore we only test people with severe symptoms thus reporting a lot less infected per day compared to many other countries. My personal concern is that we now have thousands of Covid-19 infected walking around for passing the virus on to the next. Right now the authorities are assessing that there are between 10.000 and 90.000 Danish citizens out there with the virus creating a huge "Dark number" that we will never know exactly.
Stay Safe!!!
Karsten
slippery pete
Well-known member
100% concur.
Whatever test vs case counting methodology is in place, only South Korea and China have turned their numbers around. The similarity in trajectories of cases and cases per million regardless of population size/density does suggest that infectious individuals are everywhere.
Personally I’m focusing on the death toll numbers as they covers the entire population including the “Dark number”. That gives a much better indication of where the specific country is on the curve.
Look at the death toll number in Germany compared to Italy and Spain right now, that clearly indicates Germany is looking much better than the other 2 despite total infected numbers.
I truly hate statistics as they are so easily manipulated into whatever you what to address.
Karsten
Totally agree but again here in Denmark even people with all the right symptoms but not severe enough to be hospitalized, are not tested at all and can in theory walk around in public spreading the virus.
It seems like infected people also can spread the virus a bit before they get symptoms themselves.
Karsten
slippery pete
Well-known member
But if the symptomatic confirmed cases rise, they are caused by the totality of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases and their associated rates of ongoing transmission. You can't gain comfort from asymptomatic cases until the symptomatic cases turn downwards.
Regarding that link, it feels early to call success in Hong Kong and Singapore. There is indication of a second wave hitting now (potentially repatriations). Singapore looks like they successfully implemented a delaying tactic, but are currently experiencing exponential growth in new cases (whether these are down to enhanced testing, a second wave locally, or repatriations is unclear). Hong Kong COVID-19 cases from repatriations are currently making news headlines.
China implemented lockdown in Hubei province on Jan 23rd when they had 571 confirmed cases and 17 dead. Within a week their daily new cases started descending. Italy has implemented their lockdown progressively after already having >1000 cases and have yet to see any decline in new cases and spiking deaths with an overwhelmed health service. All Western countries are tracking the Italy model.
Mabman
E*POWAH Elite World Champion
The make America great again crowd is as usual head in the sand or trying to get it there here where I live.....Swarms of visitors besiege Oregon coast despite coronavirus, pleas of locals: ‘It’s a threat to our very lives’
Small communities like Tillamook where I live have little medical resources available to handle the virus even for it's residents. While I feel for the folks that are being asked to "Stay at Home" that don't have the situation I am in living in a fairly pristine environment, although at the latitude that does seem to be the most at risk and over 60 myself, people just need to hunker down.
Sure my plans to go to the dez and get shed of the rain pattern we seem to be stuck in are off but I can keep my fenders on and tough it out riding the SOS and am thankful for that at least.
Small communities like Tillamook where I live have little medical resources available to handle the virus even for it's residents. While I feel for the folks that are being asked to "Stay at Home" that don't have the situation I am in living in a fairly pristine environment, although at the latitude that does seem to be the most at risk and over 60 myself, people just need to hunker down.
Sure my plans to go to the dez and get shed of the rain pattern we seem to be stuck in are off but I can keep my fenders on and tough it out riding the SOS and am thankful for that at least.
Thanks for that its quite a useful bit of information. We have our own management company and we are all shared directors. TBH this kind of thing has always as a verbal agreement when they were all owner occupied. This has caught us out now a landlord has bought this one.
We will have to call an emergency meeting but we have to give them due notice by which point they will have probably finished. Lesson learnt for future we will be changing this aspect regarding the freehold as the management company owns this, but we all have an equal share, but we can vote to over rule another party.
GrahamPaul
E*POWAH Elite World Champion
In my opinion, this doesn't really matter, as long as the testing regime stays consistent. Only testing severe symptons will still indicate a rising or dropping infection rate, in just the same way that testing the whole population will. What is important is whether the speed of increase of infection, which results in those severe symptoms, is increasing, staying the same, or reducing. That's why it's important to examine the slope of the curve (using a log scale as this neatly drops to a straightish line) for each country individually.
Germany is a bit of an odd one. Germany has not been testing all deaths, unlike Italy. However, the graphs show that the German speed of increase of infection is still following the rest of Europe. It seems to be tracking Italy's rate quite closely. Hopefully the Germans have a magic bullet for this that they'll be able to share.
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