Is it National Trust or Forestry Commision land? National Trust have closed all of their parks and gardensJust heard Swinley forest is closed for Mtbs
Yes it is an effective way to compare cumulative cases although doesn't factor total population or number of tests performed. Here is an updated graph & link to daily updates.Actually, you can compare them. That's why this is so frightening. Unfortunately I don't have an ft.com subscription, so this graph is 4 days old and shows the development of the virus in many countries after the 100th case.
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Its owned or run by the crown estate and think someone needed an ambulance there yesterday , so have decided to close to bike on trails and fire roads !Is it National Trust or Forestry Commision land? National Trust have closed all of their parks and gardens
Looks like everyone's taking the social distancing and maybe staying at home pretty seriously ..
www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-51994504
I really hope someone's majorly ramping up respirator production in the UK or there's going to be a lot of unnecessary departures starting late next week.
Statistically speaking (which in no way really represents the actual situation, because the UK cases haven't had enough time for people to actually recover). BUT... you really really don't want to get C-19 if you're in the UK at the moment if numbers drive you !! Look out world .. at the moment, you're 2.5 times more likely to die than recover !! Hoping for some big increases in recoveries soon !!!!
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Yep I am close to popular tourist spots and am concerned that now the schools are closed we will get swamped with grockles. We only have 7 cases county wide here so low compared to London and Home Counties but that could so easilly change with an influx of visitors.Looks like everyone's taking the social distancing and maybe staying at home pretty seriously ..
www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-51994504
I really hope someone's majorly ramping up respirator production in the UK or there's going to be a lot of unnecessary departures starting late next week.
Statistically speaking (which in no way really represents the actual situation, because the UK cases haven't had enough time for people to actually recover). BUT... you really really don't want to get C-19 if you're in the UK at the moment if numbers drive you !! Look out world .. at the moment, you're 2.5 times more likely to die than recover !! Hoping for some big increases in recoveries soon !!!!
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I am 69 and have no health problems but I am self isolating anyway as far as it is practical to do. You are right that you need to be a little careful with the stats if you want an accurate view of what is happening. In the UK the limited amount of testing means most of the reported cases are hospitalised. There will be many more than that infected who may be assymptomatic or only mildly affected. They are the walking timebombs. Plus there are all those still in the incubation stage. Put together it does mean the death rate is much lower as apercentage of the numer infected, but that number infected is greater than the stats show.The other factor of course is that reporting deaths due to Corona virus is overstating the case. Because of the Corona virus's more severe impact upon older people, many of those deaths will have been from people who would have died this year anyway of other things. The virus just made it happen a bit sooner. A tragedy for those involved, but none the less they would still have died of something, seeing as they had underlying health conditions that made them vulnerable to a pulmonary illness.
For example, the Department of Health and Social Care says that deaths due to flu and its complications averages 17,000/year. It varies enormously, from less than 1700 in 18/19 to over 28,000 in 2014/15. But in 17/18 the number was above 50,000 deaths (largely unnoticed by the Press, but I was nearly one of them!). Did you see what I did there? 1700 deaths in 18/19, but an enormous 50,000 the year before. Those that were taken in that cull were not around to die the year after. If the Corona virus had been around in 17/18, how many of those 50,000 deaths would have been attributed to the virus? What is the betting that the number of flu-related deaths this coming winter will be low, because those that were susceptible have been finished off early by the Corona virus?
What has the Corona virus done to us? Here we are discussing mortality rates and early deaths in a dispassionate and seemingly uncaring manner. It shows what an impact it has had on the nations thoughts (some of us at least).
I'm almost 69 and with a history of a susceptibility to lung problems, so I have a keen interest in this whole topic!
Keep your distance, you know it makes sense!
Note: Thanks to Peter Hitchens of the MoS for obtaining the numbers from the Department of Health and Social Care.
Yes it is an effective way to compare cumulative cases although doesn't factor total population or number of tests performed. Here is an updated graph & link to daily updates.
Total confirmed cases of COVID-19
I'm surprised that the BBC has not produced a report showing all the graphs and charts that we have seen, but more up to date. But maybe they have been told not to do so in case it frightens the general population.
But if it was on BBC2, and called something nerdy like" Mathematics of Covid-19 + Lots of Talking Heads" it would not be watched by those likely to be unduly alarmed by the facts of the situation.
Everything is a fact until it is proven wrong!I think the Beeb's problem is their culture of "balance". They'd have to devote equal time to someone telling us that it's just a mild cold, so wrap up warm and carry on...
BBC bizarrely chooses to interview Nigel Farage about coronavirus on Newsnight
(I find it utterly heartbreaking that "balance" means that equal weight must be given to "opinions" as is given to provable facts )
It still astounds me how selfish some poeple are being. I live in a building of 4 flats, one of the residents is in the 1.5million at risk category so is not allowed anywhere for 12 weeks.
The flat next door to him has sold recently and today 5 builders turned up to start doing work on it. They are carrying on as if nothing has changed in the world, basically an additional 5 people coming in and out of a small building that they dont need to be in, not applying any form of safety advice whilst doing it.
I asked the owner of the property if they thought it was appropriate to be doing the work at this point when we know someone in the building is potentially going to die from it if they contract the virus. Their response was "I have spent a lot on this property and I need it to be rented out ASAP".
I don't even know how you begin to have a sensible discussion with someone like that.
Everything is a fact until it is proven wrong!
Firstly get in touch with the managing agent or freeholders association if you have one, and ask if they are aware of the works, and what paperwork should been in place for any building work - many Freeholders have put a halt on anyone works starting in block right now that are not essential maintenance.Let the Freeholder/Managing agent deal with it if they think things are not in order.
Then ask the owner the following:
All of the above should being place before works commence on site.
- Have they got the permission of the freeholder to undertake any work - usually would require a License to Alter in a block of flats. This would usually over works that our allowed, security deposits, requirement for party wall awards, insurance etc
- Have they served building control Notice
- Have they served an F10 and completed the relevant CDM paperwork to start on site
Without a building control notice in place they shouldn't have started work.
CDM is Construction Design and management regulations - this is a process under witch site risk in terms of working conditions, and effects of the works in regards to HS, and mitigating them on site and to other people/the general public are identified by the contractor, and submitted to HSE - with the current situation mitigating risk of spread of Covid-19 would have to be identified and a strategy for mitigating and exposure or spread in place. Given there is a sever shortage of PPE in the construction industry right now it is almost impossible to comply with HSE regs.
Hope this helps
Thought it worth posting back with a graph of daily new cases (not cumulative) so you can see the countries that have turned this around.
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That is the plot of daily cases per million population by days since the country recorded more than 1 case per million. Only South Korea and China have turned it around. Singapore's initialliy successful containment was "delay" only. Everybody else is heading upwards of 100 daily cases per million and who knows if we will see turnaround before 1000 daily cases per million - e.g. 0.1% chance that you will get it on any single day.
Italy is the curve to watch. Switzerland might be skewed because of small population and Swiss efficiency in detecting cases.
Interactive version on this link: clicky
published statistics do not provide a clear picture of what is going on right now... most infected countries are following very different test strategies.
Personally I’m focusing on the death toll numbers as they covers the entire population including the “Dark number”. That gives a much better indication of where the specific country is on the curve.100% concur.
Whatever test vs case counting methodology is in place, only South Korea and China have turned their numbers around. The similarity in trajectories of cases and cases per million regardless of population size/density does suggest that infectious individuals are everywhere.
But the dark asymptomatics are likely to be shedding a much lower viral aerosol amount as they are not coughing or sneezing. This article provides hope that good distancing and surface hygiene may be very effective:
Keeping the Coronavirus from Infecting Health-Care Workers
But the dark asymptomatics are likely to be shedding a much lower viral aerosol amount as they are not coughing or sneezing.
This article provides hope that good distancing and surface hygiene may be very effective:
Keeping the Coronavirus from Infecting Health-Care Workers
Firstly get in touch with the managing agent or freeholders association if you have one, and ask if they are aware of the works, and what paperwork should been in place for any building work - many Freeholders have put a halt on anyone works starting in block right now that are not essential maintenance.Let the Freeholder/Managing agent deal with it if they think things are not in order.
Then ask the owner the following:
All of the above should being place before works commence on site.
- Have they got the permission of the freeholder to undertake any work - usually would require a License to Alter in a block of flats. This would usually over works that our allowed, security deposits, requirement for party wall awards, insurance etc
- Have they served building control Notice
- Have they served an F10 and completed the relevant CDM paperwork to start on site
Without a building control notice in place they shouldn't have started work.
CDM is Construction Design and management regulations - this is a process under witch site risk in terms of working conditions, and effects of the works in regards to HS, and mitigating them on site and to other people/the general public are identified by the contractor, and submitted to HSE - with the current situation mitigating risk of spread of Covid-19 would have to be identified and a strategy for mitigating and exposure or spread in place. Given there is a sever shortage of PPE in the construction industry right now it is almost impossible to comply with HSE regs.
Hope this helps
I do believe that a lot of all the published statistics do not provide a clear picture of what is going on right now. Even WHO are shouting "test test test and more tests", most infected countries are following very different test strategies. That in the end makes it impossible to do a direct comparison based on the above mentioned statistic numbers.
Denmark for example do not follow the recommendation from WHO and therefore we only test people with severe symptoms thus reporting a lot less infected per day compared to many other countries. My personal concern is that we now have thousands of Covid-19 infected walking around for passing the virus on to the next. Right now the authorities are assessing that there are between 10.000 and 90.000 Danish citizens out there with the virus creating a huge "Dark number" that we will never know exactly.
Stay Safe!!!
Karsten
100% concur.
Whatever test vs case counting methodology is in place, only South Korea and China have turned their numbers around. The similarity in trajectories of cases and cases per million regardless of population size/density does suggest that infectious individuals are everywhere.
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