How much longer can YT survive?

[leftside]

I was at my local bike store on Thursday and they are getting extremely concerned about the lack of products available to sell. No products to sell = no revenue.

I was also looking for a spare battery, and there doesn't appear to be any in stock world wide. Whilst I was on the German, US, etc sites I took a look at bike stocks, and there is hardly anything available. How can a company survive if they have nothing to sell?

 

[Zimmerframe]

Having nothing to sell, could also mean they've already sold everything they normally would in a year....... ?

 

[Camstyn]

Same as every other manufacturer. They may have to do layoffs until production can resume back to full speed. YT might be smart to just start selling frame only kits, since component availability seems to be what’s causing the delays.

 

[Rob Rides EMTB]

nothing to sell = targets met
Nothing to sell = cash in the bank
nothing to sell = potential incremental revenue loss
nothing to sell = frustrated customers
Nothing to sell = did exactly what they needed to do to meet financials

Either way, they sold all their stock, met all forecasts, made the profit they predicted and will likely sell out of all new MY22 bikes.

forecasting / sales / inventory / c sat is a balancing act. YT sold everything (like most of the bike industry.)

 

[leftside]

All good points made above. My only concern is that YT usually sell out every year anyway. This year is different in that they don't seem to have new/updated models to sell - not yet at least anyway.

Honestly, I hope my fears are unfounded. I've had YT bikes for 6 years now. Capra, Tues (still have) and Decoy (still have). I consider myself a bit of a "YT lifer" and presumed my next bike would also be a YT.

 

[Rich the gasman]

All good points made above. My only concern is that YT usually sell out every year anyway. This year is different in that they don't seem to have new/updated models to sell - not yet at least anyway.

Honestly, I hope my fears are unfounded. I've had YT bikes for 6 years now. Capra, Tues (still have) and Decoy (still have). I consider myself a bit of a "YT lifer" and presumed my next bike would also be a YT.

new Capra out next week

 

[Norange]

nothing to sell = targets met
Nothing to sell = cash in the bank
nothing to sell = potential incremental revenue loss
nothing to sell = frustrated customers
Nothing to sell = did exactly what they needed to do to meet financials

Either way, they sold all their stock, met all forecasts, made the profit they predicted and will likely sell out of all new MY22 bikes.

forecasting / sales / inventory / c sat is a balancing act. YT sold everything (like most of the bike industry.)

You would hope so, and that all players in the industry are sat in a good position right now. Pretty sure some won't be though, forecasting through the last 18 months has been an absolute shitfest.

 

[leftside]

new Capra out next week

That would be great! Decoy next

 

[RustyMTB]

I do miss the old hang on til October & pick up this year's rocket ship for 40% off though. Those days have definitely gone for the time being.

 

[leftside]

I do miss the old hang on til October & pick up this year's rocket ship for 40% off though. Those days have definitely gone for the time being.

Not quite 40% off, but I picked up my 2019 Decoy CF Pro in the Feb 2020 outlet sale for a good deal. As you say, that's certainly not going to be happening this year...

 

[Gary]

A stand alone spare part (ie. the Shimano Battery you want) not being available for you (the consumer) to buy from a shop has little relevance to stock levels of the same item with bike manufacturers.

 

[leftside]

A stand alone spare part (ie. the Shimano Battery you want) not being available for you (the consumer) to buy from a shop has little relevance to stock levels of the same item with bike manufacturers.

Reread my post. Whilst looking for a battery, I also took a look to see if there were many bikes available. Most were totally sold out, and the situation has been like that for quite a while apparently. Usually, by this time of the year YT would have their new bikes out and a good stock level (and hence incoming revenues).

Imagine if a publicly listed company on the stock market said "our revenues were off the charts last year, but as of yet we don't have any revenues this year as we have nothing to sell." As a fan of YT bikes, I hope they get some stock soon.

 

[Gary]

 

[Gary]

Reread my post

No thanks

 

[MTB565]

Haven't YT officially left the yearly product cycles? They'll release new bikes whenever ready and run smaller batches with different specs and colours? The Jeffsy Core is an example, was up for sale not long ago and sold out quick. And new Capras are in stock now.

 

[Armeniandave]

Unfortunately even if YT gets bikes to sell they are dead to me.
I have a warranty claim in for a derailleur that they said they
would ship end of February and not only have they not shipped
it they will not answer emails or there phone. I’ve been trying for
3 weeks now with no luck. Contrast that to my Commencal which
had an issue that was resolved within a week. They make good
bikes but customer service has to be there too. Not responding
for weeks on end is not a way to make me want to buy another
bike from them. Just my opinion.

 

[MTB565]

Unfortunately even if YT gets bikes to sell they are dead to me.

Same here, had 3 claims and the support sucked on all occasions. Not only did they take months to get back to me and not very helpful at all when they did. Love the bike (Jeffsy) but customer service are shit. Seems like NA customers are better off though.

 

[Armeniandave]

Same here, had 3 claims and the support sucked on all occasions. Not only did they take months to get back to me and not very helpful at all when they did. Love the bike (Jeffsy) but customer service are shit. Seems like NA customers are better off though.

I’m in San Diego less than an hour from them. It’s worldwide
now unfortunately. COVID has only made it worse but other
companies seem to be doing much better even with COVID.

 

[MTB565]

I’m in San Diego less than an hour from them. It’s worldwide
now unfortunately. COVID has only made it worse but other
companies seem to be doing much better even with COVID.

All my claims were all pre-covid so they cant use that excuse. Unless the frame explodes I wont even bother with contacing them again, I'll just fix it myself.

 

[Slowroller]

My assumption of the YT business model was:
1) Order bikes from Asia in Feb.
2) Ride preproduction bikes all summer, tease new product from time to time.
3) Take pre-orders, keep riding
4) Get bikes in November, stop riding.
5) Ship bikes for 3 weeks until they sell out.
6) Fatten bank accounts, go surfing until end of January.
7) Repeat

Seems pretty good to me

 

[Mark02380]

nothing to sell = targets met
Nothing to sell = cash in the bank
nothing to sell = potential incremental revenue loss
nothing to sell = frustrated customers
Nothing to sell = did exactly what they needed to do to meet financials

Either way, they sold all their stock, met all forecasts, made the profit they predicted and will likely sell out of all new MY22 bikes.

forecasting / sales / inventory / c sat is a balancing act. YT sold everything (like most of the bike industry.)

Nothing to sell = cash in the bank, Yeah my cash in there bank and no bike to show for it

 

[Ozone08]

YT literally cannot keep up with demand and could sell 2-3-4 times as many bikes if they had them to sell. The fact that they only make a limited amount of units (compared to other companies) is what makes them special in my eyes at least. As a YT fan my only worry is that one day they will be bought out by the likes of Raleigh or specialized.

 

[Ivabign]

Rob, they might have sold all they were able to build, but do you know if they were able to build all they had projected to build? With the COVID caused supply chain issues a lot of manufactures weren't able to build, sell and ship what their targets were. Also, the parts that they were able to get were often much more expensive which would affect their bottom line (although a lot of the manufacturers are passing that hit directly to the consumer). Just because they have nothing to sell doesn't mean they are in great financial shape, in fact in today's situation I would assume the opposite, especially for smaller companies...

nothing to sell = targets met
Nothing to sell = cash in the bank
nothing to sell = potential incremental revenue loss
nothing to sell = frustrated customers
Nothing to sell = did exactly what they needed to do to meet financials

Either way, they sold all their stock, met all forecasts, made the profit they predicted and will likely sell out of all new MY22 bikes.

forecasting / sales / inventory / c sat is a balancing act. YT sold everything (like most of the bike industry.)

 

[folmonty]

This isn't just about YT, the global supply chain is decimated. Stick a fork in it for the time being and most likely for remained of 2021. They'll be playing catch-up for some time. The new normal is constantly changing. Hang in there, gonna take some patience!

 

[1oldfart]

It is good for manufacturers and retailers.
Many feel forced to buy/reserve a bike 6-10 months ahead without
seeing, testing it. Early march i put a non refundable deposit on a 2021 Giant with
expected arrival at my LBS early june. I might get it in august who knows.
So the 2022 will have no incentive to be price competitive.
They might boost the prices by 15%, time will tell.
But i will not sell a bike until an other is in my house.

 

[folmonty]

It is good for manufacturers and retailers.
Many feel forced to buy/reserve a bike 6-10 months ahead without
seeing, testing it. Early march i put a non refundable deposit on a 2021 Giant with
expected arrival at my LBS early june. I might get it in august who knows.
So the 2022 will have no incentive to be price competitive.
They might boost the prices by 15%, time will tell.
But i will not sell a bike until an other is in my house.

You might think it's good but if you were trying to make a living, paying bills, rent, employees and vendors not so much. If companies and businesses close you'll know it then. Fallout from the last year and change is going to continue. Batten down the hatches. Hope your bike comes in. If any manufacture has the power to make it happen it's Giant due to their enormous size.

 

[leftside]

It is good for manufacturers and retailers.
Many feel forced to buy/reserve a bike 6-10 months ahead without
seeing, testing it. Early march i put a non refundable deposit on a 2021 Giant with
expected arrival at my LBS early june. I might get it in august who knows.
So the 2022 will have no incentive to be price competitive.
They might boost the prices by 15%, time will tell.
But i will not sell a bike until an other is in my house.

I paid for a Commencal this week with an expected arrival of July. I can collect from the outlet store which isn't too far away (YT also used to have an outlet store there...) Certainly not selling the Decoy (even after the Commencal arrives).

 

[Norange]

I think will be divisive for retailers. Easier for the big boys to front up the cash and buy up a ton of stock to keep their revenues going. Much harder for your smaller LBS who'll be relying on walk up trade and ordering from distribution.

 

[1oldfart]

You might think it's good but if you were trying to make a living, paying bills, rent, employees and vendors not so much. If companies and businesses close you'll know it then. Fallout from the last year and change is going to continue. Batten down the hatches. Hope your bike comes in. If any manufacture has the power to make it happen it's Giant due to their enormous size.

You are correct in a way. It might depend on the brands they carry. Before covid my LBS was carrying Giant, Trek and a few smaller brands. Being a regular, talking with the manager they were doing very well. All the bikes sold in august and sept at some discount are not discounted because the floor is empty so the income has improved. 2 day ago a huge retailer posted a pic, just an empty floor so this year again no need for discounts so *better than normal/usual income*.

 

[Norange]

Bear in mind that early last year they'd have been sat on their pre pandemic stock. Agreed that they'd have been making better margin then. The waits this year suggest that sometimes they simply can't get stock reliably.