Current UK situation for the wider readership here....1950 confirmed cases and 71 fatalities. Not sure where the estimate comes from but the Govt advice panel suggest there could be as many as 55,000 people infected but not tested. In some ways it would be encouraging if that were accurate since it would put the fatality rate in the same ballpark at for Flu at about 0.13%
Covid 19 worries !
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GrahamPaul
E*POWAH Elite World Champion
Dream on.
The following video has just been sent to me by a friend who is a medical doctor. He says that the video was shot with permission and can be freely distributed. He does not identify the hospital other than to say that it is a developed country (they seem to be speaking Italian, so there's a clue) but says that the hospitals in Madrid are currently in exactly the same state.
Bear in mind that Italian hospitals currently have twice the number of critical care beds that UK hospitals have.
There's one thing for certain, @Mikerb , in a month's time we'll know whether videos like this are scaremongering, won't we?
PSR1947
Member
On Sunday I rode with a friend at Swinley Forest. Tonight he has text me that his wife has the virus and he will be self-isolating for 14 days.
Obviously I hope he hasn't contracted it and even worst has passed it on to me as I am one of the vulnerable group that the Government keeps on talking about.
Then consider the Hub at Swinley, it was busy and we had lunch there.
As someone said, there are difficult times ahead.
Obviously I hope he hasn't contracted it and even worst has passed it on to me as I am one of the vulnerable group that the Government keeps on talking about.
Then consider the Hub at Swinley, it was busy and we had lunch there.
As someone said, there are difficult times ahead.
Out of curiosity, does anyone actually know anyone that has the virus. Im talking about friends or family.
Apart from that guy just above me
Apart from that guy just above me
HORSPWR
E*POWAH Master
Huh?????
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- #398
ignore that post , I’d just woke and must have had a weird dream
HORSPWR
E*POWAH Master
ignore that post , I’d just woke and must have had a weird dream
Thought you'd been a little bit too much on the glass pipe
miPbiP
E*POWAH Master
Number infected doubles every 4/5 days.
People dieing now were infected 4 weeks ago. Work that back from 55,000, halving every 5 days, and that's about 1000 infections at the time.
It also takes about 5 days on average for symptoms to show (tho even at 12 days 1% still haven't shown symptoms).
So half those infected now haven't shown symptoms yet.
I'm sure my figures aren't perfect, but the point is you can't estimate a death rate from today's deaths as a proportion of today's infections when the infection rate is exponential.
Akiwi
🐸 Kermit Elite 🐸
Yes, one of my best mates who I go e-biking with is confirmed positive, though he is absolutely fine at the moment. At home keeping himself isolated. (He was skiing in Italy a few weeks ago, after that his wife had the flu, and the whole family was tested., only he was positive. he lives near Stuttgart and I haven't had contact with him since last year).
I was just skiing in France with another friend, and he couldn't go home as one of his kids best friends and his family are all confirmed positive. He is waiting for test results if his wife and children are also positive. We didn't go into any bars / clubs etc and avoided gondolas as far as possible, but every time I cough, sneeze or my throat feels strange I start worrying.
I am in Germany by the way.
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The thing that makes this whole situation sad is how some people are acting. I called at a local Tesco's the other night in Sheffield to get some milk and they had called the police to deal with people arguing over food. Both of those involved had absolutely packed their trolleys with enough stuff to feed a normal person for a full month. Mean while older people won't get a look in.
The ultimate irony of the two involved here was both could have done with losing a good few stone!
The ultimate irony of the two involved here was both could have done with losing a good few stone!
congerball
Active member
Too many cunts about these days ?
GrahamPaul
E*POWAH Elite World Champion
It used to be that one had to cough loudly to distract and cover up for a fart. The secret these days is to fart loudly to distract....
Sapientiea
Active member
I know of 4 cases in my direct surroundings that have the virus. I suspect many others, as they have developed a cough or other symptoms.
I have been paying attention to hygiene and tried to warn people early in February to follow some simple hygiene rules, but I got laughed at a lot. Well they are not laughing anymore I can tell you.
I have been paying attention to hygiene and tried to warn people early in February to follow some simple hygiene rules, but I got laughed at a lot. Well they are not laughing anymore I can tell you.
Akiwi
🐸 Kermit Elite 🐸
I worked out why everyone needs so much toilet papar..
It is because every time someone coughes or sneezes, everyone else shits themselves!!!!
It is because every time someone coughes or sneezes, everyone else shits themselves!!!!
yes and also kind gestures, amidst lockdown here in northern california one chain of supermarkets open only for the over 60 crowd from 8 to 9am when the shelves have been restocked and the store cleaned
I think if any of us put figures in our posts a link to the source material should also be posted.
One model that’s been discussed is this. And remember it’s just a model based on today’s assumptions. The article has a link to the Imperial College (a prestigious London university) source paper too.
Inside the model that may be making US, UK rethink coronavirus control
One model that’s been discussed is this. And remember it’s just a model based on today’s assumptions. The article has a link to the Imperial College (a prestigious London university) source paper too.
Inside the model that may be making US, UK rethink coronavirus control
GrahamPaul
E*POWAH Elite World Champion
GrahamPaul
E*POWAH Elite World Champion
Interesting paper. Thanks.
No matter what I may have implied elsewhere, I do feel for those folks who have been badly informed by their governments. Governments which appeared to be more interested in economic rather than human consequences.
It's hard to change opinions which are based on belief and emotion. One hopes that the learning curve will not be too harsh.
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Before anyone misunderstands me, I like to think kindness, compassion and community spirit will go some way to getting us all through this. These values are something I hold dear anyway but this is what is needed across the board in times of crisis.
If you are in a position help the vulnerable around you in any way please do. I’ve had to be in lockdown for a few weeks now already due my health but even then I can FaceTime/skype people to support them.
Stay safe friends.
If you are in a position help the vulnerable around you in any way please do. I’ve had to be in lockdown for a few weeks now already due my health but even then I can FaceTime/skype people to support them.
Stay safe friends.
50% of the people I know won't talk to me if they can see me ..
The other 50% won't talk to me if they can hear me ...
Sapientiea
Active member
Agreed, it will cost everybody money and some lives in the end if we choose people over money. If we choose money over people it will cost a lot of lives and suffering and money I guess. I rather try to limit deads to be honest and am willing to face the financial consequence.
Schools in U.K. now closed until further notice. Hope all are OK.... massive impact to the daily lives of many.
Whilst measures in the UK are less draconiun the evidence I see at least within my circle, is that both businesses and individuals are taking specific measures to reduce social contact. My son has been told to telework for 12 weeks...no travel and no meetings. My son in law who works in City of London has been told to stay home..his firm suspending business until furthet notice...2 planned weddings we were invited to have been cancelled...surgery appointments are now by phone only.....etc. Several local supermarkets have placed quantity limits on specific goods to spoil the day of the selfish.
Yes I appreciate all that. The stats are very difficult if not impossible to interpret due to so many variables. The volume of testing is another factor and at the moment in the UK that number is small. Govts have little choice but to work on worst case scenarios .
One of the biggest problems in the developed world is CVD, on average it kills 640,000 Americans a year, if you then get a virus like covid 19 it accelerates these deaths until health services are swamped, the whole thrust of the government's strategy is to try to slow down the transmission of the virus so that hopefully the NHS can cope with it, the facts as I understand them are that most people with the underlying health issues will make a complete recovery, the levels of hysteria surrounding this virus help no one, and with the help of threads on social media (including this one ) and the media in general we end up with the frankly crazy scenes of panic buying which is then only made worse by the media's reporting of it.
Some statistics for heart disease in the UK
Deaths from heart disease rise for first time in 50 years among under-75s
Some statistics for heart disease in the UK
Deaths from heart disease rise for first time in 50 years among under-75s
I work in the construction industry, and at the moment there is a real lack of clarity on what people should be doing - pretty much all the consultants such as Architechts, engineers etc are working remotely and video calling/confencing in - but we have multiple sites with 50 plus people on them, and this just seems like going against all common sense right now. Add in the getting hold of essential PPE like face masks, and essential site welfare items like cleaning products/loo roll is also pretty much impossible, and the sites IMO should not be running.
The contractors are shitting themselves about activating Force Majeure clauses in the contracts even though they should be, as they will go under if the work dries up - if you are not on site you are not getting paid, and most of these companies have multimillion pound credit liabilities with sub contractors, trade suppliers etc.
Further down the food train individual trades are still turning up even with symptoms as they just cant afford not to. There is simply no advice on what to do, exsasivated by the fact there isn't really a nationwide authority/body to issue universal advice within the industry which covers all sectors of it.
Its a total house of cards right now financially, with no clear way out or path forward.
The contractors are shitting themselves about activating Force Majeure clauses in the contracts even though they should be, as they will go under if the work dries up - if you are not on site you are not getting paid, and most of these companies have multimillion pound credit liabilities with sub contractors, trade suppliers etc.
Further down the food train individual trades are still turning up even with symptoms as they just cant afford not to. There is simply no advice on what to do, exsasivated by the fact there isn't really a nationwide authority/body to issue universal advice within the industry which covers all sectors of it.
Its a total house of cards right now financially, with no clear way out or path forward.
PSR1947
Member
Today after cutting the grass in the front garden and feeling no ill effects in this exertion, I ventured out for a cheeky 15 miles through the forest. I didn't stop for tea at the kiosk, nor did I stop to chat with the one mtber I saw out there.
I definitely felt better for the fresh air and I intend to do this trip again unless I feel the effects of the C19, or the government orders me not to.
I definitely felt better for the fresh air and I intend to do this trip again unless I feel the effects of the C19, or the government orders me not to.
steve_sordy
Wedding Crasher
That's the Japanese in trouble then! Their native population is almost completely type A.
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