Covid 19 worries !

[b45her]

Well, to start, there is no vaccine against COVID-19, or even any treatment thats been shown to be effective. Pneumonia on the other hand, whilst potentially fatal, has vaccines. This is a big difference in COVID and other disease.

there is also no vaccine for many strains of the flu (which is a bigger killer by a factor of thousands) or for the common cold for that matter, both of which can cause pneumonia, covid doesn't kill you in any different way to any other respiratory condition, it gives people with compromised immune systems or other serious underlying problems pneumonia.
in the last week of january alone a touch under 10,000 people were diagnosed with flu in just the uk, a small percentage of them will die, why has this not made the news? why is the country not in a state of mass hysteria over flu?

 

[khorn]

Interesting. Probably why after 5-6 days in a row of riding (falling off) that I feel like I'm coming down with something.

If you are taking a look at top athletes they are crazy hysterical about protecting themselves from any infection as they know that their body is extremely vulnerable to any disease.

Stay safe Rob!!

Karsten

 

[khorn]

there is also no vaccine for many strains of the flu (which is a bigger killer by a factor of thousands) or for the common cold for that matter, both of which can cause pneumonia, covid doesn't kill you in any different way to any other respiratory condition, it gives people with compromised immune systems or other serious underlying problems pneumonia.
in the last week of january alone a touch under 10,000 people were diagnosed with flu in just the uk, a small percentage of them will die, why has this not made the news? why is the country not in a state of mass hysteria over flu?

Are you aware that the death toll is about 10 times higher than a normal flu...? Are you also aware that it seems like some of people that have been infected with Covid-19 have follow on complications for life like for example a reduction in lung capacity up to 30% - Do you get that with a normal flu....?

Again apparently you have no clue what is actually going on right now so I'm kindly suggesting that you step back, educate yourself a bit more before you make further statements!

Your Sky news today:
Coronavirus: What is the government's new strategy of 'suppression'?

Karsten

 

[b45her]

Sorry but it does not seem that you understand what is going on right now at all but let me educate you a bit!

Covid-19 is not dangerous for 99% of the world population that is absolutely correct, however what is extremely dangerous is when TOO MANY get the virus at the same time. It is a fact that 5-10% of those getting infected need respiratory care in a hospital, if they get that they will get on just fine - If they don't get it they might die...... In my country(Denmark) we have about 860 respirators available, yesterday 28 people was respiratory supported and today the number is 62. You can do the math yourself and what happens when patient number 861 arrives with intensive care need....Someone is going to die!!

Denmark have one of the best equipped healthcare systems in the world and what we are desperately trying do is to keep the flow of patients below that 860 number in order not having to take very very nasty decisions at the hospital who should live and who should ultimately die.....

What is happening in Italy is just what I described above, too many in need of intensive care at the same time and suddenly the death toll skyrocket - I feel sad just writhing this

What if it is your mum or dad in need of incentive care in 2 months time......?

Karsten

they are the figures for reported cases not for people that need ventilating only a small percentage need ventilation.

as a bit of a sobering thought, flu doesn't even get solid figures attached to it the statistics are usually kind of fudged in a convoluted way.

just this flu season there have been 34,000,000 million cases of flu reported world wide. flu averages a death rate of 0.1% that is still 34,000 deaths just this season, compared to less than 5,000 so far for covid, once covid has run its course its done with until the next one comes along in a few years time, flu is here every year all the time it doesn't go away ever, people need to get some context into their lives and stop panicking about what is essentially a pretty minor illness.

 

[b45her]

Are you aware that the death toll is about 10 times higher than a normal flu...? Are you also aware that it seems like some of people that have been infected with Covid-19 have follow on complications for life like for example a reduction in lung capacity up to 30% - Do you get that with a normal flu....?

Again apparently you have no clue what is actually going on right now so I'm kindly suggesting that you step back, educate yourself a bit more before you make further statements!

Your Sky news today:
Coronavirus: What is the government's new strategy of 'suppression'?

Karsten

dude are you seriously quoting sky news as a source?

 

[GrahamPaul]

dude are you seriously quoting sky news as a source?

Well then, try this instead. Just check the hospitalisation rates...

 

[Sapientiea]

People should understand numbers. Mortality rates are not the real issue here, although the official current numbers as stated by the WHO are not reassuring: "mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care. ".

Problem is quite simple. Much more people will need hospitalisation with an infection of SARS-CoV-2 than with influenca. For SARS-CoV-2 this number is about 10-20% depending on general health status of a population, etc. The fact that virtually nobody on this planet has an immunity against SARS-CoV-2, unlike the flu, makes that the total number of possible infections will be dramatically higher. This will overload the hospitals and general healthcare systems to a point where life threatning conditions cannot be treated due unavailability of health workers (like in Whuan, Italy and most likely France in the coming weeks).
It is also true that people with comorbidities are more susceptible to develop severe pneumonia. So it is important for healthy strong people to not infect the weak and the old, because they are also people. And importantly you will also become old or weak one day....

 

[Zimmerframe]

they are the figures for reported cases not for people that need ventilating only a small percentage need ventilation.

as a bit of a sobering thought, flu doesn't even get solid figures attached to it the statistics are usually kind of fudged in a convoluted way.

This has already been discussed earlier in the thread, but as it stands at the moment there are 81,000 people who have recovered from the virus. Ok, not a huge number in the global scheme of things. At the same time 7,500 have now died from it. So purely on a Recovered or DEAD ratio it's not that far off 10%

To make it simple. Flu is already widespread throughout the population. Yes, it kills a lot of people each year, but the death rate compared to recovery is relatively tiny, so whilst it's not a good thing, it doesn't kill enough people each year to warrant severe measure to try and eradicate it.

Fortunately, at the moment, Covid-19 isn't very widely spread, people (hopefully) are trying to limit the spread (if they've got an ounce of common sense). If this ends up as widely spread as Flu, then you will be looking at a huge number of dead people and a completely overwhelmed health system.

Great news for apprentice grave diggers paid per hole, for the rest of us, not so good.

As mentioned, for those that do recover, there can be long term side effects, such a breathing difficulties and in some extremely hideous cases, turning ginger.

 

[khorn]

and in some extremely hideous cases, turning ginger.

Whats wrong with being ginger?

BTW Early experience from some patients overcoming Covid-19 are that they experience severe kidney issues as well - All have to understand that this is not only a typical Flu pandemic!

Karsten

 

[Zimmerframe]

Whats wrong with being ginger?

Like many ailments we can be born with, it's just how it is and you quickly overcome it and learn to live with it. But can you imagine how life changing it could be for someone who was normal - but becomes GINGER !

 

[Zimmerframe]

If anyone needs more "proportional" representation of what this might mean in terms of survival/death and strain on health services :

Yesterday to today ... An increase of 1000 DEAD compared to an Increase of only 3000 recovered ..

16th March :

17th March :

 

[khorn]

If anyone needs more "proportional" representation of what this might mean in terms of survival/death and strain on health services :

Yesterday to today ... An increase of 1000 DEAD compared to an Increase of only 3000 recovered ..

16th March :
View attachment 27514

17th March :

View attachment 27515

Zimmer; I don't believe that you can use that as a "measurement" of just how bad it is right now. Many western countries see "being sick" as a very personal private matter thus not reporting into public unless the person do it themselves. In Denmark for example only 2 persons are reported as a closed case even the real number is much much higher.

Karsten

 

[stiv674]

Like many ailments we can be born with, it's just how it is and you quickly overcome it and learn to live with it. But can you imagine how life changing it could be for someone who was normal - but becomes GINGER !

I started out ginger but I'm gradually turning grey, frying pan and fire springs to mind

 

[khorn]

I started out ginger but I'm gradually turning grey, frying pan and fire springs to mind

56 and still Ginger......So is my temper too

 

[Zimmerframe]

Zimmer; I don't believe that you can use that as a "measurement" of just how bad it is right now. Many western countries see "being sick" as a very personal private matter thus not reporting into public unless the person do it themselves. In Denmark for example only 2 persons are reported as a closed case even the real number is much much higher.

Karsten

Absolutely, there aren't any figures out there which are accurate, the whole things moving too quickly and there are too many factors. I just felt it showed the potential increasing burden on health care services as this moves forward as more people end up in an "unrecovered/not dead" situation ...

Mixed in with a bit of Shock and Awe !!

Which makes me wonder if "Shock and Whore" would be a great name for a bondage brothel - after the apocalypse has settled down.. We could have a giant tasteless neon flashing image of George H.W. Bush on the wall under the name ... Though that could have a negative effect on customers amorosity ... needs more thought, more than happy to hand this one over to someone more experienced ..

 

[stiv674]

56 and still Ginger......So is my temper too

I salute you sir

 

[ggx]

This is going to became worse before it get´s better. This as the potencial to put regions /countrys in a big/total disruption, and this is going to put every regions/people in a big chalenge.We need to protect ourselves and our families, but it´s going to be necessary also to help everybody else. It´s a global chalenge .

 

[MattyB]

Well then, try this instead. Just check the hospitalisation rates...

I read that Imperial College report last night before bed and quickly wished I hadn't. It's easy to see why the Gov have changed tack - the previous strategy to mitigate and slow the spread apparently results in a best case projection of 8x our max ITU bed capacity here in the UK at the peak. However, the problem with the new strategy to suppress cases is it means no "herd" immunity is created to Covid-19. That in turn means you have to keep all the current measures - social distancing/school closures etc. - in place until you have a vaccine. That could be 12-18 months away! If that proves correct we are looking at an event with an impact similar to that of the World Wars, perhaps not in deaths but certainly in terms of social and economic disruption.

Stay safe everyone, especially if you are going out on your bike - you do not want to be visiting A&E for any broken bones right now...

 

[miPbiP]

there is also no vaccine for many strains of the flu (which is a bigger killer by a factor of thousands)

check your facts. (my emphasis).

 

[miPbiP]

once covid has run its course its done with until the next one comes along in a few years time

assumption. little evidence yet on strength or longevity of acquired immunity via infection.

 

[miPbiP]

I read that Imperial College report last night before bed and quickly wished I hadn't. It's easy to see why the Gov have changed tack - the previous strategy to mitigate and slow the spread apparently results in a best case projection of 8x our max ITU bed capacity here in the UK at the peak. However, the problem with the new strategy to suppress cases is it means no "herd" immunity is created to Covid-19. That in turn means you have to keep all the current measures - social distancing/school closures etc. - in place until you have a vaccine. That could be 12-18 months away! If that proves correct we are looking at an event with an impact similar to that of the World Wars, perhaps not in deaths but certainly in terms of social and economic disruption.

Stay safe everyone, especially if you are going out on your bike - you do not want to be visiting A&E for any broken bones right now...

I think this is where we are headed. Maybe the second peak, maybe multiple peaks.

All the same, everything we can do now to slow it down we must do. Anything else is just throwing the vulnerable under the bus.

 

[GrahamPaul]

I read that Imperial College report last night before bed and quickly wished I hadn't. It's easy to see why the Gov have changed tack - the previous strategy to mitigate and slow the spread apparently results in a best case projection of 8x our max ITU bed capacity here in the UK at the peak. However, the problem with the new strategy to suppress cases is it means no "herd" immunity is created to Covid-19. That in turn means you have to keep all the current measures - social distancing/school closures etc. - in place until you have a vaccine. That could be 12-18 months away! If that proves correct we are looking at an event with an impact similar to that of the World Wars, perhaps not in deaths but certainly in terms of social and economic disruption.

Stay safe everyone, especially if you are going out on your bike - you do not want to be visiting A&E for any broken bones right now...

It's actually rather more alarming than what seems at first sight dreadful. The reference to an "8-fold higher peak demand than available surge capacity" on page 8 of the report is actually refering to 8 critical care beds per 100,000 of population.

The UK currently has 6.6 such beds per 100,000 - with little spare capacity.

You'd better get building!

Edit: Graphic for you information

 

[miPbiP]

this also is a very sobering watch for anyone in the "what's all the fuss about, snowflakes?" camp. recommended.

BBC iPlayer - Our World - Wuhan: Life under Lockdown

 

[miPbiP]

Are you also aware that it seems like some of people that have been infected with Covid-19 have follow on complications for life like for example a reduction in lung capacity up to 30%

do you have a source for that please @khorn? (I'm asthmatic so need to know this stuff). ta.

 

[GrahamPaul]

do you have a source for that please @khorn? (I'm asthmatic so need to know this stuff). ta.

Some recovered Covid-19 patients may have lung damage, doctors say

 

[Rick53]

In America Trump had a National Prayer Day to Our God Jesus Christ : With a Little practical hand washing : And Everyone's Borders Closed : We Should All Be OK and Trust God is in Control : Be safe Everyone : Warm Weather is coming : That also will help kill this

 

[Mikerb]

I have some sympathy with the comments comparing the current virus attack with, for example the Flu. In the UK at least it is true that deaths from Flu far exceed those from this virus. I think it is also true that both cause fatality in much the same way by resulting in Pneumonia. It is also the case that Pneumonia sufferers can be left with further complications once essentially recovered. It is also true that it is extremely difficult to make judgements based on the existing statistics. No one has any idea of the total numbers infected at any time. It mainly only knows those that that develop symptoms sufficient to justify testing. The global areas that have suffered most did so because they had infected persons circulating without even knowing the virus existed in the early stage during late December 2019 and early January 2020. BUT, the big problem all governments face is lack of knowledge about the virus, and can really only plan on the basis of the most recent experience worldwide. That experience may well result in an iver reaction but no Govt can afford to take that risk.
The brighter lights on the horizon are that not only does it look like this could result in the fastest ever production of a vaccine but possibly even more important some form of drug treatment for those that become infected. If both prove possible we may even make progress on a more general basis to treat lung infections that cause pneumonia. Just like during wartime, technology can often accelerate at a rate impossible without some form of national/global crisis.
So for the moment the measures taken by Govt need to be taken seriously and everyone needs to take personal responsibility.

 

[khorn]

This is not to spread unnecessary fear but here is another article about blood type versus Covid-19. Preliminary studies shows a connection between specific blood types and how big a risk you are in. Again, data is still few so it is not solid proof but again good knowledge if you are in a high risk group.
People with blood type A may be more vulnerable to coronavirus: study

Karsten

 

[Mikerb]

With the new measures in the UK being advised what will happy to live tv production like the nation’s favourite SATURDAY NIGHT TAKEAWAY and the not live but only by a few days (get out ma pub) EASTENDERS !

A major shutdown of a lot of the media would do the general public a huge favour!!

 

[Mikerb]

This is not to spread unnecessary fear but here is another article about blood type versus Covid-19. Preliminary studies shows a connection between specific blood types and how big a risk you are in. Again, data is still few so it is not solid proof but again good knowledge if you are in a high risk group.
People with blood type A may be more vulnerable to coronavirus: study

Karsten

Looking at the blood group type distribution by ethnicity the majority of Northern Europe has a fairly even split between 0 and A ( c 40% for each). Interestingly there is a lower percentage of A in the Irish and Scottish ethnic groups.