What does the future of ebikes hold technologically, socially and in market share?

[Tetsugaku]

Start Monday off with a big thread right?

Technology:
Regenerative brakes
Integrated power, navigation and control, and lighting systems

Socially
Ebikes become far more acceptable as a much wider and more diverse set of riders realise they can engage with something they were oreviously excluded from due to physical set backs

Market share
Right now the market for bikes is as saturated as it’s going to get. Significantly more people will not start cycling without a significant change in the market conditions. Ebikes are that change.

Maybe 20% of existing riders would use an ebike. That is not the total ebike market. It is in fact the obvious tip of a very large iceberg. Maybe ten times more people, than that 20% of the existing market, would ride if they could. If hills didn’t scare them, if a weak knee didn’t scare them, if being overweight didn’t scare them.


What does the future hold
In the next five years? How about ten? What happens to the car market when you can ride around town easily on a cheap reliable electric bike or order a robot Uber for long journeys?

Interested to hear your thoughts. Remember, we’re a niche (ebikes) of a niche (bikes) who are invested enough to join a forum (niche). What is the wider market and trends going to be?

 

[ccrdave]

It would be interesting to know what percentage of ebike owners are actually mountain bikers, i mean by that riders who use their bikes exclusivly for offroad riding
I think one of the major factors against ebikes becoming a widely used method of transport is weather

 

[Tetsugaku]

Stats look pretty niche to me!
Cycling UK's Cycling Statistics | Cycling UK

My market share numbers are almost pulled out of my ass but are still my best guess. If you have other ideas share them! ?

 

[Tetsugaku]

Well thanks for your input!

How about anyone else’s ideas?

 

[eFat]

I don't see regenerative brakes coming as It must be added to the current components and not a replacement.

There is definitely a small market of new e-bikes commuters but as stated the weather is a big issue.

 

[Slowroller]

It depends where you're talking about as well. I don't think that outside of cities that bikes or ebikes will ever be used very much for transportation in the US. Ebikes will get more lapsed bikers back on bikes, and maybe some new ones, which is great, but cycling will always be a niche here for various reasons.

I'm not sure electric mountain bikes will gain much share here until access increases to close to 100% of what mtbs have, it's a long way from that now.

 

[Tetsugaku]

Very true - I have a 100% European or even UK viewpoint. Any bike, electric or not can go anywhere because of the limits on the class 1 bikes and of course distances are smaller. I commute to work every day for example

The number of people in an urban compared to 'countryside' environment here is also quite assuredly urban, so everythign is close.

 

[ccrdave]

Unless i am mistaken its only the US that use is restricted everywhere else in the world you can useca pedal assist bike anywhere you can use a regular bike, a lot of the trail centres in the uk hire them out

 

[Slowroller]

I've spent a ton of time in the EU, since the distances are closer, and bikes are already used as a normal way to get around, they're logically a great choice as a vehicle, an ebike only makes more sense. Plus, gas prices.

Here, they're just toys for kids and expensive toys for adults primarily.

 

[Rob Rides EMTB]

I have a lot of thoughts on this. But for now I just saw this and thought it was quite apt:

Uber to buy electric bike-sharing firm

 

[Kendoji]

My Stromer ST2 speed pedelec already has regenerative braking. It’s a high tech beast, also has a SIM card built-in, tracks location if stolen, downloads it’s own updates over the air, etc...

Bikes are just going to get smarter and smarter.

 

[eFat]

My Stromer ST2 speed pedelec already has regenerative braking.

Of course, with a hub motor it's already built-in.

And it's nice to regulate the speed downhill, but far from a "real" braking which need to deal with much more energy.

 

[Rob Rides EMTB]

Technology:

• Lighter motors
• Newer generation of battery technology (a way off yet though) for much higher range
• Fast charging support for use at trail centres. 80% charge within 30 mins
• Wireless Charging. Put your bike back in ‘range’ of the charger and it will charge via induction (again, a while off)
• Better integration of software and hardware, not just off the shelf packages. Tyre pressure levels, smart motor assistance based on available battery
• Price decreases

Socially

• EMTB’s are regarded as interested, cool and innovative. We’re quite close to this right now
• Access is opened to more riders, through pedal assistance.
• E Bikes become a regular method of transport for many. Look at the article I just linked above. Uber have just purchased an EBike sharing company. That’s a big deal.
• Biking in general become bigger. The rise of technology and over-use of personal devices hit a level of endemic proportions that there is a realisation that there is a danger that we become all-encompassed by devices. E-Biking is an way of ‘getting outside’ whilst getting our tech fix (this one is a bit out there, but I feel we’re reaching a tipping point at the moment where we’re getting hooked on technology, so much so that it’s detracting from real life. We see things like biking as a way of detaching and soaking up real life again

Market Share

• EMTB’s start to outsell regular MTB’s in the £2k+ section within 2 years (in EU / AUS) and later in USA when the manufacturers successfully lobby for trail access and it’s granted and becomes mainstream and accepted
• MTB manufacturers realise that they need to innovate or die, creating a quicker upgrade cycle of MTB’s (think how phone usage changed over the last 20 years)
• EMTB share to grow as social acceptance increases

 

[100 Cols]

Don't know about the future, but in my neck of woods (Southern France, Nice area) the local bike shops tell me that they get 70% of their revenue from eBikes at the moment. Times they are a changin'. It's no more about innovators, we are probably in early adopters phase already... and maybe the laggards are able to follow in the next ten or so years. At least if we're talking about eMTBs.

Speaking about eBikes in general, I do not think we are facing a problem of "acceptance"... the biggest barrier to major market adoption is money, deep pockets and hard cash certainly. Currently a decent eBike costs half the price of a decent Fiat 500, which is pretty ridiculous - because the amount of technology and raw materials in that small Fiat is hundred times superior. What's more, high prices also lead to storage problems, a safe garage is more or less a requirement.

Another important hurdle is general biking infrastructure (safe roads), which is mostly or totally underdeveloped everywhere in Europe - with few exceptions, like northern freezing cold flatland countries and some urban hipster high-income areas here and there. Developing infrastructure is sloooow, much slower than the pace of technology, but of course, it will happen eventually. Unless our wessie economy collapses totally for whatever of those foreseeable million reasons.

We eMTB folks are a bit different breed though, riding circles in a forest without actually going anywhere is more like an expensive and useless hobby, just incredibly fun. So it's hard to find any intelligent reason for WHY eMTB seems to be going airborne. Maybe it will really fly at the end, who knows.

 

[Rob Rides EMTB]

@100 Cols great points. The pricing is a big factor. But, this will reduce massively over the years. We are early adopters still, paying a premium for the design, tooling, innovation and marketing. This will reduce with economies of scale.

 

[Pottsy]

Don't know about the future, but in my neck of woods (Southern France, Nice area) the local bike shops tell me that they get 70% of their revenue from eBikes at the moment. Times they are a changin'. It's no more about innovators, we are probably in early adopters phase already... and maybe the laggards are able to follow in the next ten or so years. At least if we're talking about eMTBs.

Speaking about eBikes in general, I do not think we are facing a problem of "acceptance"... the biggest barrier to major market adoption is money, deep pockets and hard cash certainly. Currently a decent eBike costs half the price of a decent Fiat 500, which is pretty ridiculous - because the amount of technology and raw materials in that small Fiat is hundred times superior. What's more, high prices also lead to storage problems, a safe garage is more or less a requirement.

Another important hurdle is general biking infrastructure (safe roads), which is mostly or totally underdeveloped everywhere in Europe - with few exceptions, like northern freezing cold flatland countries and some urban hipster high-income areas here and there. Developing infrastructure is sloooow, much slower than the pace of technology, but of course, it will happen eventually. Unless our wessie economy collapses totally for whatever of those foreseeable million reasons.

We eMTB folks are a bit different breed though, riding circles in a forest without actually going anywhere is more like an expensive and useless hobby, just incredibly fun. So it's hard to find any intelligent reason for WHY eMTB seems to be going airborne. Maybe it will really fly at the end, who knows.

"We eMTB folks are a bit different breed though, riding circles in a forest without actually going anywhere ....."

I like that quote because for most of us it's true

 

[Rob Rides EMTB]

It’s coming...

Could e-bikes be the future?

 

[Tetsugaku]

The true market for bikes is so much larger than traditional bikes it's hilarious. One day non powered bikes will be a bit like sail boats

 

[R120]

I think that the E-MTB market is going though massive growth, and probably not peaked yet. For me the biggest selling point of an E-MTB, is that realistically with a young family and work commitments its are i can get out for more than 2-3 hours, and the E-MTB allows me to get some decent riding into that slot, and also ride straight out my front door, rather than drive to trail.

However i think E-Bikes in general are much more widespread than people think, if you go to Europe they are commonplace being used for commuting and getting about town, and i can only see this increasing - most "normal" e-bikes also have all the lights/accesories powered off the main battery too, with several allowing you to charge a USB device too, which while a lot of wiring, does actually make life easier as you don't have to worry about having to charge up multiple devices etc, you just turn on the bike and go.

A massive market for E-bikes is the older generation, who also tend to have the most disposable income. In my extended family there are 4 grandparents who all have high end E-Bikes that they use for both leisure, but also getting around to do shopping etc. They love them as it keeps them active, provides and easy way to get around, and also find it very social, as ultimately us cyclists love nothing better than discussing our bikes and going out for rides! Now all their friends are getting them too - so one purchase of an E-bike two years ago has now turned into 3 others of my family getting them, and a lot of the grandparents friends getting them too.

 

[R120]

Also i have noticed recently, that E-MTB's are getting a lot more acceptance - pretty much anyone i speak to about them now with MTB'ing, from shops to mates, wants one - so for me its gone from them being thought of as a quirky niche, to the product everyone wants right now, and i thinks thats because (like most pastimes!) most of us realise we are not going to be Aaaron Gwinn or Nino Schurter, and bikes built for them are wasted on us, but a bike that enables us to have more fun on the hill - thats fun for everyone.

 

[Tori]

Also i have noticed recently, that E-MTB's are getting a lot more acceptance - pretty much anyone i speak to about them now with MTB'ing, from shops to mates, wants one - so for me its gone from them being thought of as a quirky niche, to the product everyone wants right now, and i thinks thats because (like most pastimes!) most of us realise we are not going to be Aaaron Gwinn or Nino Schurter, and bikes built for them are wasted on us, but a bike that enables us to have more fun on the hill - thats fun for everyone.

This is the best comment I have read for a while. You're spot on, and you sum it up so well. I have never rode as much as I now do on my EMTB; nor have I ever had as much fun on a mountain bike.

 

[OldBean]

Security issues have to be addressed ..I love my Focus Jam 2 but have to use a Hiplock every time I go to our village shops to protect my new toy.
I could leave my old rigid hybrid anywhere with no worries.
The sim card "key" and bike tracking should be mandatory on all E bikes.
Cant wait to go riding .....

 

[Rob Rides EMTB]

2019/2020 predictions

• Reduced motor weight and size for some manufacturers
• Better software allowing finer motor control
• Better switchgear and displays
• Cleaner wiring especially around switchgear and controls
• Improved battery and frame integration to remove the bulbous appearance

2021+ predictions

• Integrated GPS, phone and fitness calculators into stem / bars
• Remote location of bike, ability to disable or lock to prevent theft via phones
• Magnesium / Aluminium motor casings for further weight saving or motor
• Fast charge capability, 80% charge in 40 mins, supported by major bike parks and trail centres
• USA trail restrictions hugely reduced

 

[100 Cols]

I would like to get motor and rider power sent as an "ant+ power sensor" data. It should not be too hard thing to do, as these machines already have torque sensing electronics built in.

 

[Tori]

I would like to get motor and rider power sent as an "ant+ power sensor" data. It should not be too hard thing to do, as these machines already have torque sensing electronics built in.

The Specialized bikes already do this, you can see motor power on the mission control application screen.

The bike software also logs rider wattage, but this isn't displayed on the app screen, you can get the data after the ride is completed. I would think that future updates will allow this in real-time.

 

[100 Cols]

Interesting, didn't know that Specialized has already partly taken that route. However, what I would like to see, is "power meter" info on my Garmin, together with heart rate, cadence, incline, etc. Being able to analyze a ride later with computer (or with an app) is nice, but instant power (or 3 sec average, % of FTP or whatever) would be even more useful.

Power meters are still pretty expensive gadgets, but many amateurs do use them nevertheless - even I have power meter pedals, which I use on road bike and once a year on track weekend. If people could get "free" power meter with an eBike, that would be a brilliant selling/buying argument, I think.

 

[ccrdave]

if you have a levo the BLevo app will do all of that now

 

[Topov]

Good news for Specialized owners, they are working hard on a larger battery for Levo/Kenevo, 630watt, could be due as early as September, no costs as yet

 

[Rob Rides EMTB]

Good news for Specialized owners, they are working hard on a larger battery for Levo/Kenevo, 630watt, could be due as early as September, no costs as yet

Interesting! Any source for this info?

 

[Topov]

Yes This came form a top Specialized technician he is at head office every week