Value loss on an emtb? - real world

[More-read-than-ride]

Please answer ONLY if the following applies:

1. The list price was 2500€ or more when new.
2. The bike was 3 years old or less at the time of sale.
3. The bike was sold in 2018 or 2019.
4. Loss is considered on what you actualy paid, not list price.

Reason for the poll: The technology and design is changing quite quickly, and I am interested in knowing if this has a big impact on second hand value in real life.
I considered including the brand, but trying to keep it simple.

 

[R120]

The problem is that a more expensive bike is going to drop way more value IMO.

E.G I reckon a decent 4k bike might drop £500 to a £1000 depending on how popular a model it is, but I can see a 7-10k bike dropping a lot more, especially if it has older tech.

I cant imagine there be much of a market for a second hand 2018 Levo S-Works for example at anything more than half its RRP, simply because it has now been superseded by the 2019.

 

[More-read-than-ride]

The problem is that a more expensive bike is going to drop way more value IMO.

E.G I reckon a decent 4k bike might drop £500 to a £1000 depending on how popular a model it is, but I can see a 7-10k bike dropping a lot more, especially if it has older tech.

I cant imagine there be much of a market for a second hand 2018 Levo S-Works for example at anything more than half its RRP, simply because it has now been superseded by the 2019.

I completely agree and was considering making different polls for different list price brackets. I tried to "level" the field by limiting minimum price, age and year. However, lets see how this one turns out and if there is a need for more. I assume that a large percentage of the bikes are in the 4000-6000€ range, but based on your comments, please add below if bike costs are dramatically different when answering the poll.

 

[More-read-than-ride]

If everyone here has Sworks, I am much poorer than I thought (Or smarter)

 

[OlaGB]

I think its better to think of it as a % loss of retail price, if its a popular bike.

I would say 25-30% first year, and then 10% a year after that would be close to reality. Approx 50% at 3y?

New tech isnt always better. Buying the late production stuff, often gives you well proven stuff, instead of not knowing if the brand new hype stuff will brake, collaps or maybe show to be very unpopular over time for some other reason.

 

[Eckythump]

Hope you guys are right, I was thinking I’d probably get about half price for my 2yr old Focus!!

 

[Sherman]

I would say 25-30% first year, and then 10% a year after that would be close to reality. Approx 50% at 3y?

I would say 40% first year, 15-20% second year and good luck selling anything over three years old..

 

[OlaGB]

I would say 40% first year, 15-20% second year and good luck selling anything over three years old..

On a typical mtb, i would agree.. My more optimistic numbers are based on the price of emtb`s being so high, that the used bike market is better than on standard mtb`s..
Might be totally wrong though.

 

[MattyB]

On a typical mtb, i would agree.. My more optimistic numbers are based on the price of emtb`s being so high, that the used bike market is better than on standard mtb`s.

Unfortunately I think that is offset in the main by the more rapid rate of progress in EMTBs and the concerns that used buyers have over warranty when buying a much more complex and less reliable device than an analogue bike. Concerns over battery degradation are also going to affect used values too, especially over 2 years old. They may be fun, but bikes in general are a terrible investment!

 

[OlaGB]

I doubt we need to give away 2y old 6+k euro Levo comp's, Decoy pro's and 900E's for 2-2.5k euro in 2021.
My bet is more like 3-3.5k euro.

Lets go back this thread sometime in summer 2021 and have a laugh at ourselves trying to look into the future!
Gentlemen , place youre bets!

 

[flash]

Personally, I don't understand the worry about depreciation when buying something like a bike. You may get less or more than you think in two years or you may bend the frame around a tree and get nothing. Most likely I'll give this bike to my son when I'm ready for a new ride. I'm 54. I could drop dead tomorrow.

The money is spent. Gone. I don't do credit so I can afford what I buy or I can't. So, I treat it like an investment. An investment in my personal well being. The little healthier my heart will be. The number of grins I'll get riding. The people I'll meet and ride with. The extra time I spend with my kids away from screens. I didn't buy my bike thinking about how much I'll lose. I bought my bike thinking about how much I will gain. As far as I'm concerned the money is 100% gone.

And now apart from some maintenance it's pretty much free to ride until I break it. My local club charges a paltry 30 buck a year in membership and you don't even have to pay that. Besides surfing and hiking there are few sports that don't come with constant usage fees. My tennis racquet cost me $250 but I pay $1000 a year to play two nights a week. My girlfriend pays over a grand a year on gym fees. I ride three or four days a week for nothing. I got a stone chip on my bike last week. A proud battle scar, not a worry that I've reduced the resale value.

Financially, it's mostly irrelevant even bothering with worrying about which brand will depreciate faster. Most of us will get more financial gain by giving up take away coffee than the depreciation on our bikes over three years. Personally I find it a bit of a downer when I worrying about what I can sell for before I even buy.

Gordon

 

[steve_sordy]

@flash Nice attitude!

 

[eboy]

Yes Gordon's attitude is quite idealistic and many of his points are even inspiring. However taking his reasoning to the end of the spectrum one should just go into the bike shop and buy exactly what you want, let's say the shop has the new 2019 Turbo Levo S-Works at a grand savings of $500. So let's say you pay $11,500 plus tax. You keep it for many years and enjoy many smiles and will it to your kids. Is there some school of thought that you buy a used 2018 Turbo Levo S-Works with a tad less power and specs from a reputable source for maybe $6500 and just in case you unexpectedly lose your job, get injured and have to get out from under it and resell it for $5000 a year later? Only losing $1500 vs the $5-6K on the newer bike.

Gordon's reasoning assumes a perfect life with good money flowing in, no hardships. I don't think I worry about what I'll lose as much as I believe in making sound financial decisions based on life's uncertainties. For me that means used cars and used bikes... I also am a musician which explains the difference in viewpoints...

 

[eboy]

I also have followed some recent sales of some used e-bikes including a a trio of 2018 Levo Comp Carbons, a couple 2018 Haibike xduro Allmtn 6.0's, a 2018 Levo S-Works and even a 2019 Trek Powerfly 7. These were seemingly good almost mint bikes from reputable EBAY sellers and a Craigslist deal and in every case (except Trek) the final price including shipping was 40% (give or take) off of the original release price. The Trek came in at 35% off it's original. There is even a reputable store who I found a couple deals on some 2018 Turbo Levos (brand new) at roughly 27% off of the original stickers and that includes shipping and no tax. This is pretty good concrete evidence of 1st year depreciation of well known quality e-bikes.

These "used eBay/craigslist" deals require more time and patience to acquire them which doesn't work for everyone. Granted there is more risk with EBAY/Craigslist sellers and that explains the 40% vs the 27% in those private party deals vs the store deal. But I believe that with certain practices such as messaging sellers and asking such questions as which bike store you got bike at and what serial number is and battery life. In some cases I have called and verified that the bike shop not only was the original seller and could vouch for the seller's bike but also was involved in helping the seller ship the bike... There is also the practice of getting the seller to detail as much as possible about the condition of the bike and that combined with PayPal linked credit card makes it very hard to get ripped off on a large ticket item. Not foolproof but pretty good.

I for one believe that saving money on big ticket items that rely on technology like computers, cars, e-bikes is prudent if you value the dollars you spend and either want a minimized loss if you must sell or are on a limited budget and want to get these technology products every 3 years. I simply could not afford to get the latest Turbo Levo every 3 years...

 

[All Mountain Coaching]

Bought the intense primer frame for 3000, invisiframe, Chris king headset, so 3250. Sold it 18m later for 1000. And it was still the current model. Yeah it sucks baws, but that's life. Buy new, of course it will depreciate more than second hand. The fact that bikes are refreshed every year or so doesn't help. That's the society we live in. Phones, watches cars bikes suspension components etc etc all change yearly. So we want to keep up with everyone else.

 

[Sherman]

I doubt we need to give away 2y old 6+k euro Levo comp's, Decoy pro's and 900E's for 2-2.5k euro in 2021.
My bet is more like 3-3.5k euro.

How much would you pay for a top end 2017 Levo today? Would you even consider one? It will be the same for 2019 models in 2021.

 

[R120]

Buying a 2017 Levo would probably be a bit like buying Triggers Broom

 

[OlaGB]

Dont know the prices for levo`s at all i`m afraid.
But it seems like second hand prices over here in scandinavia are alittle higher than in US/UK.

For the record, i`m not worried at all about the devaluation of my own bike. I can afford 100% loss, but ofcourse i hope not to.

 

[EMTBehave]

Yes Gordon's attitude is quite idealistic and many of his points are even inspiring. However taking his reasoning to the end of the spectrum one should just go into the bike shop and buy exactly what you want, let's say the shop has the new 2019 Turbo Levo S-Works at a grand savings of $500. So let's say you pay $11,500 plus tax. You keep it for many years and enjoy many smiles and will it to your kids. Is there some school of thought that you buy a used 2018 Turbo Levo S-Works with a tad less power and specs from a reputable source for maybe $6500 and just in case you unexpectedly lose your job, get injured and have to get out from under it and resell it for $5000 a year later? Only losing $1500 vs the $5-6K on the newer bike.

Gordon's reasoning assumes a perfect life with good money flowing in, no hardships. I don't think I worry about what I'll lose as much as I believe in making sound financial decisions based on life's uncertainties. For me that means used cars and used bikes... I also am a musician which explains the difference in viewpoints...

If you have a life with potential hardship and a family that relies on you to put bread on the table despite an inconsistent cashflow then you probably shouldn't be buying an $11'500 bike?

 

[eboy]

Who says I was buying an $11500 bike? I made it clear based on my circumstances I was getting the used or demo bike based on ,my values. I guess I was providing counterpoint to Gordon's perspective because not everyone is in his boat. But he did say it was his "personal" viewpoint so I respect that. It actually inspired me to get to a place where I can buy in the fashion he does. You get things right when you want them, you start enjoying things right away...

 

[MarkH]

Lowest depreciation I ever achieved was with my Capra Carbon. Bought it new when the pound was strong for 2300, sold it 2 and a half years later for 1800 by which time new ones were 3400 due to exchange rate change: so approx 75% retained value.
Not expecting my Levo to get anywhere near that percentage.

 

[flash]

Yes Gordon's attitude is quite idealistic and many of his points are even inspiring. However taking his reasoning to the end of the spectrum one should just go into the bike shop and buy exactly what you want, let's say the shop has the new 2019 Turbo Levo S-Works at a grand savings of $500. So let's say you pay $11,500 plus tax. You keep it for many years and enjoy many smiles and will it to your kids. Is there some school of thought that you buy a used 2018 Turbo Levo S-Works with a tad less power and specs from a reputable source for maybe $6500 and just in case you unexpectedly lose your job, get injured and have to get out from under it and resell it for $5000 a year later? Only losing $1500 vs the $5-6K on the newer bike.

Gordon's reasoning assumes a perfect life with good money flowing in, no hardships. I don't think I worry about what I'll lose as much as I believe in making sound financial decisions based on life's uncertainties. For me that means used cars and used bikes... I also am a musician which explains the difference in viewpoints...

To be clear, I'm not advocating just buying what you want, when you want. The question was what depreciation do you expect AFTER the purchase and I was responding to that. I am an advocate of buying the best YOU can afford, sensibly and then enjoying the shit out of it. That means I never have buyers remorse. But as a single parent of a pair of hungry teenagers I also have a budget I need to stick to. That doesn't change my attitude to the way I think after I spend the money but it does influence my thinking before I spend it.

During my life, I have been both well off and poor. It's no fun selling your possessions to be able to feed your kids. Currently I have a very good life. I'm very careful to make sure I have a savings plan in place, just in case. But I've also had people I know who've been planning for tomorrow and not living today, who have then had a stroke before they got to live the life they wanted. Friends already talking about their regrets. I know people making millions who worry and worry about what they'll do in 25 years from now instead of being alive today. No thanks.

My bike was an investment. It has brought me gains not loss. I exchanged some money for something better. I will enjoy it as long as I'm able.

Gordon

 

[urastus]

With what we know, would anyone buy out of warranty? It would have to be cheap, and the mtb part in great condition.

 

[NPMMTB]

Looking at old used bikes now 2020 2022 models they seem very over priced in my opinion, or am I just being unrealistic, seeing models of bikes like the base Levo that’s 2/3 years newer selling new for £4500ish but used market asking 3k?

 

[TommyC]

Looking at old used bikes now 2020 2022 models they seem very over priced in my opinion, or am I just being unrealistic, seeing models of bikes like the base Levo that’s 2/3 years newer selling new for £4500ish but used market asking 3k?

I bought in March 22. Stock was low and the bosch smart system was new to the market so there were no deals to be had anywhere. I paid the full £4899rrp for my stereo SL. In fact you were lucky if you could even get the bike in the spec you wanted. I guess it was the same for most bikes sold in 22. So sellers are looking to recoup as much as possible.

A friend of mine just picked up a new 23 TM, step up from mine, for £3700. I’d be lucky to get half what I paid for mine now so it looks like it’s staying.

 

[Doomanic]

I didn't even get scammers when I put my Rail 7 up for sale on Arsebook Marketplace last summer for £2500...

 

[Bones]

I didn't even get scammers when I put my Rail 7 up for sale on Arsebook Marketplace last summer for £2500...

Are Trek bikes that bad, even scammers don't want them