How future proof are E mountain bikes

[cheekynuke]

I'm a total newbie to this forum and to E bikes. It's great to have this forum and it's been a great source of help to me as i think about taking the plunge and buying an E bike. So hello to you all and thank you for sharing your experiences, pictures and advice.

I was fortunate enough to have a test ride of a Trek Powerfly 7 and it left me smiling and even slightly bewildered by how much i enjoyed the experience. So much so i am now thinking of delaying my new road bike purchase and buying an e bike.

It seems that the Specialized Levo is a well liked bike and is now on my list of bikes to test ride. However i was wondering how future proof these bikes are.

If i brought a new road bike i could easily swap out components as technology progresses. The same i guess for most E bikes. But as E bikes are still relatively new tech i can foresee dramatic leaps in battery and motor technology.

What are your collective thoughts on the likelihood of simply replacing batteries or motors with new systems as they become available. Are they likely to be compatible with easy 'swap outs' with current machines ?

 

[Doomanic]

If there is a quantum leap forward in battery technology I would hope that the manufacturers would make it backwards compatible. It would make their support of older tech simpler by reducing inventory. Motors, I'm not so sure. Keeping the form factor the same for batteries is fairly simple as the goal is higher energy density so less size and weight and as long as the fixing points are the same thinner/lighter is no problem. Motors, on the other hand, are more closely integrated into the frame design so any major changes in motor packaging will result in redesign of the frame.

 

[Taffyteg]

Whatever you buy - you are guaranteed it won't fit anything after a couple of years. The Levo is a good example with the Brose motor, the 18MY motor even though looks the same as the older motor, won't work in a older Levo due to SW.
Battery tech is getting better but you are not likely to see anything much better than what we have now for a few years. Once the cells are done, you then need the SW to suit. If the cell size changes at all (gets longer) then it probably won't fit in the frame....

 

[eFat]

The Levo is a good example with the Brose motor, the 18MY motor even though looks the same as the older motor, won't work in a older Levo due to SW.

On other bikes, the new motor is compatible so it may be possible with a "generic" display?

 

[Taffyteg]

On other bikes, the new motor is compatible so it may be possible with a "generic" display?

Specialized have said if a pre 18MY motor dies you will get a refurbed old one as a replacement. The 18MY SW which uses a switch / control functions on the handle bars will not work on earlier models due to this apparently ?

 

[eFat]

The 18MY SW which uses a switch / control functions on the handle bars will not work on earlier models due to this apparently

So maybe you just need to buy also the switch? Does Specialized sell it separately?

 

[Taffyteg]

So maybe you just need to buy also the switch? Does Specialized sell it separately?

According to Specialized there is no way of adding a switch. I will dig out the website where I found the info.

 

[ccrdave]

According to Specialized there is no way of adding a switch. I will dig out the website where I found the info.

Its bullshit new motor and old batteries work perfectly well together and visa versa and the only obstacle for fitting the wired bar switch is the hole in the frame is not big enough to pass the plug through. Mate of mine just cut the wire fitted the switch then joined the wire back up.
Its true about the replacement motor though, you just get a refurbed 1.2 motor.
But then if they let you buy the upgrades you would buy a new bike would you!!!

 

[Taffyteg]

Its bullshit new motor and old batteries work perfectly well together and visa versa and the only obstacle for fitting the wired bar switch is the hole in the frame is not big enough to pass the plug through. Mate of mine just cut the wire fitted the switch then joined the wire back up.
Its true about the replacement motor though, you just get a refurbed 1.2 motor.
But then if they let you buy the upgrades you would buy a new bike would you!!!

Where did he get the switch from and does it work with a Brose 1.2 motor?

 

[ccrdave]

Hes in the states but said he got it from his local shop and yes he said it works. Not seen it first hand though, but the plug socket is on the 1.2 motor the battery firmware is the same as long as you have updated to latest spec the 1.3 motor firmare is different ver 5 where 1.2 motor is ver 4 but as far as my friend says it doesnt make a diiference.
When i asked specialized about fitting one to my old bike the only comment they made was you cant as the hole in the downtube is not big enough to pass the plug through and if you drill the frame it will void the warrenty. No other reason for it not working was given

 

[ccrdave]

If you could get your local dealer to get you one in it would be dead easy to just plug it in and see if it works, if does then just work out how to get it fitted properly

 

[Tetsugaku]

I don’t think anything is future proof, that’s the cost we pay for cutting edge technology.

All the bike standards we have on clockwork bikes apply to ebikes, you just have motors and batteries to add to the mix.

As ebikes get more integrated, like regenerative brakes and fully integrated lighting and power systems, they will be less user maintainable but that just increases the market share for bikes. It’s a bit ghettoised right now.

Side note about motors. You can’t buy a Volvo and swap out the engine for a new Nissan (or even Volvo) motor after 3 years. Well not without some serious reengineering. You can’t do it here either.

 

[cheekynuke]

I don’t think anything is future proof, that’s the cost we pay for cutting edge technology.

All the bike standards we have on clockwork bikes apply to ebikes, you just have motors and batteries to add to the mix.

As ebikes get more integrated, like regenerative brakes and fully integrated lighting and power systems, they will be less user maintainable but that just increases the market share for bikes. It’s a bit ghettoised right now.

Side note about motors. You can’t buy a Volvo and swap out the engine for a new Nissan (or even Volvo) motor after 3 years. Well not without some serious reengineering. You can’t do it here either.

That's a good point well made mate.

 

[Slowroller]

Besides not being future proof, it'll be interesting to see how the used ebike market shakes out. I'd have no problem buying a 10 year old commuter bike, since even if anything is worn out, it's easily and relatively cheaply replaced. But an electric version of the same, because of the questions of battery health and the presumed impossibility of replacing the proprietary battery or motor at that point would give me pause. Will used ebikes lose more value compared to their bicycle cousins quicker?

 

[ccrdave]

I think all components are and will be avalible t to buy , you can buy abattery for most bikes now and im prettey certain you can buy motors from most suppliers. Cost of course is another matter, for instance a turbo levo battery is avalible to buy easily at £700

 

[Doomanic]

turbo levo battery

avalible to buy

easily

£700

Err... Easily?

 

[Slowroller]

I think all components are and will be avalible t to buy , you can buy abattery for most bikes now and im prettey certain you can buy motors from most suppliers. Cost of course is another matter, for instance a turbo levo battery is avalible to buy easily at £700

You can buy a battery now, certainly. My thought is more what about for a 5 or more year old ebike? Manufacturers will continue to come up with ways to integrate batteries into frames in clever ways, which means as model years change, so will battery cases. Not to mention voltages, software and all that stuff. It'll be more like buying a used car, you'd be smart to take it to someone who can test the battery, let you know all the proprietary things that might make it difficult to maintain, those sort of things. Have you tried to buy a battery for an old laptop? You can sometimes buy ones of unknown quality from China, but manufacturers don't bother with them.

Unlike a bike, where a 10 year old bike can still perform as well as it did in the past, an old ebike could become a doorstop.

 

[ccrdave]

True but as the industry ages third party suppliers will appear just like they did for the car industry
Either way it wont stop people buying ebikes, the industry is exploding and rumour is by the end of this year things will get ramped up even more

 

[eFat]

If there are many different batteries almost all use the same cells inside. So I can see a market for refurbished batteries with new cells.

 

[cheekynuke]

You can buy a battery now, certainly. My thought is more what about for a 5 or more year old ebike? Manufacturers will continue to come up with ways to integrate batteries into frames in clever ways, which means as model years change, so will battery cases. Not to mention voltages, software and all that stuff. It'll be more like buying a used car, you'd be smart to take it to someone who can test the battery, let you know all the proprietary things that might make it difficult to maintain, those sort of things. Have you tried to buy a battery for an old laptop? You can sometimes buy ones of unknown quality from China, but manufacturers don't bother with them.

Unlike a bike, where a 10 year old bike can still perform as well as it did in the past, an old ebike could become a doorstop.

This was my biggest concern about buying an ebike. I think you are right. As tech moves on it will become harder to keep it up to scratch. Like you say on a normal bike this isn't really an issue. 5K is a lot of money to spend on a bike that i wouldn't want to change anytime soon and even then be able to sell it at some point to help recover some of the cost.

 

[cheekynuke]

If there are many different batteries almost all use the same cells inside. So I can see a market for refurbished batteries with new cells.

Sounds like a great little business idea for someone right there.

 

[Tetsugaku]

Our batteries are just laptop cells. That Specialized, for example, have the cheek to charge 700 for a new one beggars belief.

As the market gets bigger more and more third parties will produce replacements and clones.

Even now with some electronics know how you could replace or even upgrade the cells yourself.

 

[Dukeinlondon]

I thought buying a spare battery could wait till I go on longer rides but reading this thread makes me realise it might just be a case of keeping this bike going longer! I wouldn’t be surprised to be unable to buy a genuine shimano battery fitting my bike in 5 years time.